← Results

The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Factory New +23.6%Field-Tested +9.1%Minimal Wear +12.2%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Bock Blocks
M249 | Bock Blocks
3x $0.24
Fragment
UMP-45 | Fragment
3x $0.34
Zubastick
M4A4 | Zubastick
2x $0.41
Late Night Transit
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
1x $1.00
Green Line
Glock-18 | Green Line
1x $1.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $22.67
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $14.73
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $9.67
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
16.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
16.0% $5.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
16.0% $3.29
Max Win
$22.67 (+286.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.59 (+12.2%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+90.6%
Cost
$5.87
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.87
Ask Price EV $6.59 (+12.2%)
Bid Price EV $6.13 (+4.5%)
Ask Profit $0.72 (+12.2%)
Bid Profit $0.26 (+4.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.46 (+7.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.72
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $22.67 (+286.1%)
Worst Case $3.10 (-47.1%)
Volatility +90.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$5.96
Avg Loss -$2.23
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.10 (-47.1%)
Std Dev $5.32
Avg Norm Float 0.1497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 150h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Field-Tested
Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 13S //TOTAL COST $5.87 //ASK PRICE EV $6.59 //BID PRICE EV $6.13 //ASK PROFIT $0.72 (+12.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.26 (+4.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $22.67 //VOLATILITY +90.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.16,
      "output_float": 0.14971,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
      "realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 4.95,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
      "conservative_value": 3.97,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16,
      "output_float": 0.14971,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "realistic_value": 3.2855000000000003,
      "optimistic_value": 3.24,
      "output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "conservative_value": 3.18,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.667881Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16,
      "output_float": 0.14971,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
      "realistic_value": 6.997,
      "optimistic_value": 6.99,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
      "conservative_value": 5.93,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16,
      "output_float": 0.14971,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "realistic_value": 3.1605,
      "optimistic_value": 3.15,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "conservative_value": 3.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:55.195740Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16,
      "output_float": 0.14971,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "realistic_value": 3.1035,
      "optimistic_value": 3.1,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "conservative_value": 3.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:42.928188Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.104797,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 14.727,
      "optimistic_value": 14.72,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 14.53,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:39.728353Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.2007274,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 9.6735,
      "optimistic_value": 9.67,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 9.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.533258Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.14971,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 22.666,
      "optimistic_value": 22.61,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 21.5,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:53.280182Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_f6ac5ed6bafff64dfbc1bcdd",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "525375740885165047",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:37.770744Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
      "listing_id": "516368436281402378",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.602421Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "525375740885526919",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:40.824174Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "510739041953611258",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:04.576366Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "521997988016516802",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:40.824174Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
      "listing_id": "493850490551072548",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:16.088265Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.55,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "529879287552057552",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:04.576366Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.66,
      "skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
      "listing_id": "491598743580519002",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:16.088265Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "659356415310658006",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.160408Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "510739041953934790",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:30.468788Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $64.86
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $63.69
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $42.56
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
16.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
16.0% $12.97
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
16.0% $11.08
$64.86
+271.1%
$21.60
+23.6%
36.0%+99.5%$17.48—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $9.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $7.45
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $7.13
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
16.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
16.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
16.0% $2.19
$9.67
+191.4%
$3.62
+9.1%
36.0%+65.4%$3.32—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
13.3% $9.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
13.3% $7.44
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
13.3% $7.13
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
12.0% $2.19
$9.67
+160.7%
$4.73
+27.6%
52.0%+67.5%$3.71—
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
10.0% $64.86
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
10.0% $63.69
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
10.0% $42.56
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $12.97
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $11.12
$64.86
+214.7%
$26.04
+26.4%
30.0%+94.7%$20.61—
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
16.7% $9.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
16.7% $7.45
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
16.7% $7.13
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
10.0% $2.19
$9.67
+129.8%
$5.29
+25.8%
50.0%+59.5%$4.21—
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
20.0% $9.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
20.0% $7.45
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
20.0% $7.13
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
8.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
8.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
8.0% $2.19
$9.67
+102.4%
$5.85
+22.4%
60.0%+50.5%$4.78—
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
23.3% $9.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
23.3% $7.45
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
23.3% $7.13
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
6.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
6.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
6.0% $2.19
$9.67
+84.3%
$6.41
+22.1%
70.0%+42.7%$5.25—
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
26.7% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
26.7% $42.56
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
26.7% $22.67
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
4.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
4.0% $5.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
4.0% $3.32
$64.86
+114.4%
$35.55
+17.5%
53.3%+65.9%$30.26—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
3.3% $22.67
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
3.3% $14.73
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
3.3% $9.67
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
18.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
18.0% $5.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
18.0% $3.32
$22.67
+384.3%
$5.46
+16.6%
46.0%+81.7%$4.68—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
20.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
20.0% $294.44
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
20.0% $150.19
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
20.0% $39.59
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
20.0% $38.44
$597.10
+256.8%
$223.95
+33.8%
40.0%+124.8%$167.35—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Classified → Covert Minimal Wear
LongDog
AWP | LongDog
20.0% $663.30
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
40.0% $200.36
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
40.0% $183.83
$663.30
+185.1%
$286.34
+23.1%
20.0%+81.1%$232.63—
FS

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