The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.15
Fragment
2x $0.20
Bock Blocks
4x $0.21
Late Night Transit
2x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
6.7% $9.67
Charged Up
6.7% $7.45
Derailment
6.7% $7.13
Electrum
16.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
16.0% $2.79
Galigator
16.0% $2.19
Max Win
$9.67 (+191.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.62 (+9.1%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+73.0%
Cost
$3.32
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.32
Ask Price EV $3.62 (+9.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.31 (-0.4%)
Ask Profit $0.30 (+9.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.01 (-0.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+9.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.30
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.01
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $9.67 (+191.4%)
Worst Case $1.67 (-49.6%)
Volatility +73.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$3.00
Avg Loss -$1.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.67 (-49.6%)
Std Dev $2.42
Avg Norm Float 0.2957
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 150h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 14S //TOTAL COST $3.32 //ASK PRICE EV $3.62 //BID PRICE EV $3.31 //ASK PROFIT $0.30 (+9.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.01 (-0.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $9.67 //VOLATILITY +73.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$9.67
+$6.35
+191.4%
$9.66
+$6.34
+191.0%
$0.01
0.1%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$7.45
+$4.13
+124.4%
$7.29
+$3.97
+119.6%
$0.16
2.2%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$7.13
+$3.81
+114.7%
$6.40
+$3.08
+92.8%
$0.73
10.2%
—
WIN
16.0%
$4.11
+$0.79
+23.8%
$3.61
+$0.29
+8.7%
$0.50
12.2%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.79
-$0.53
-16.1%
$2.32
-$1.00
-30.1%
$0.47
16.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.19
-$1.13
-34.1%
$1.74
-$1.58
-47.6%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.76
-$1.56
-46.9%
$1.63
-$1.69
-50.9%
$0.13
7.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.67
-$1.65
-49.6%
$1.63
-$1.69
-50.9%
$0.04
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29572,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29572,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29572,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29572,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7635,
"optimistic_value": 1.76,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:35.601053Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29572,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.6744999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:44.522520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.20700399999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.33797679999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.6735,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.533258Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.29572,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.4505,
"optimistic_value": 7.44,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:48.190082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f6ac5ed6bafff64dfbc1bcdd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "497228243055051209",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:43.803232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "508487242222039214",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.602421Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "517494441497998510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:37.770744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885165047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:37.770744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "516368436281402378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.602421Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "515242588554681613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:37.770744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885526919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:40.824174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "510739041953611258",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:04.576366Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "500605942755567179",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:09.546433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:09.546433Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Charged Up 6.7% $63.69 Derailment 6.7% $42.56 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.08 | $64.86 +271.1% | $21.60 +23.6% | 36.0% | +99.5% | $17.48 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 6.7% $22.67 Derailment 6.7% $14.73 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.29 | $22.67 +286.1% | $6.59 +12.2% | 36.0% | +84.2% | $5.87 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +160.7% | $4.73 +27.6% | 52.0% | +67.5% | $3.71 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Charged Up 10.0% $63.69 Derailment 10.0% $42.56 Electrum 14.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 14.0% $12.97 Galigator 14.0% $11.12 | $64.86 +214.7% | $26.04 +26.4% | 30.0% | +94.7% | $20.61 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.45 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +129.8% | $5.29 +25.8% | 50.0% | +59.5% | $4.21 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.45 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +102.4% | $5.85 +22.4% | 60.0% | +50.5% | $4.78 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.45 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +84.3% | $6.41 +22.1% | 70.0% | +42.7% | $5.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.67 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.32 | $64.86 +114.4% | $35.55 +17.5% | 53.3% | +65.9% | $30.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 3.3% $22.67 Derailment 3.3% $14.73 Whiteout 3.3% $9.67 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.32 | $22.67 +384.3% | $5.46 +16.6% | 46.0% | +81.7% | $4.68 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Deathgaze  20.0% $39.59 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.44 | $597.10 +256.8% | $223.95 +33.8% | 40.0% | +124.8% | $167.35 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  40.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  40.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +185.1% | $286.34 +23.1% | 20.0% | +81.1% | $232.63 | — |