The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
4x $0.55
RMX
1x $0.93
Fragment
1x $1.61
Bock Blocks
1x $2.04
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Green Line
1x $3.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Charged Up
6.7% $65.07
Whiteout
6.7% $64.86
Derailment
6.7% $43.71
Electrum
16.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
16.0% $12.97
Galigator
16.0% $11.12
Max Win
$65.07 (+266.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$21.79 (+22.6%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+106.1%
Cost
$17.77
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.77
Ask Price EV $21.79 (+22.6%)
Bid Price EV $20.33 (+14.4%)
Ask Profit $4.02 (+22.6%)
Bid Profit $2.56 (+14.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.45 (+8.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.02
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.56
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $65.07 (+266.2%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-43.7%)
Volatility +106.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 64.0%
Avg Win +$23.05
Avg Loss -$6.69
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-43.7%)
Std Dev $18.86
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 149h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
$2.43 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 36S //TOTAL COST $17.77 //ASK PRICE EV $21.79 //BID PRICE EV $20.33 //ASK PROFIT $4.02 (+22.6%) //BID PROFIT $2.56 (+14.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $65.07 //VOLATILITY +106.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$65.07
+$47.30
+266.2%
$58.44
+$40.67
+228.9%
$6.63
10.2%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$64.86
+$47.09
+265.0%
$61.61
+$43.84
+246.7%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$43.71
+$25.94
+146.0%
$41.54
+$23.77
+133.8%
$2.17
5.0%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$19.50
+$1.73
+9.7%
$17.32
-$0.45
-2.5%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$12.97
-$4.80
-27.0%
$11.57
-$6.20
-34.9%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$11.12
-$6.65
-37.4%
$10.78
-$6.99
-39.3%
$0.34
3.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.22
-$7.55
-42.5%
$10.09
-$7.68
-43.2%
$0.13
1.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.00
-$7.77
-43.7%
$10.00
-$7.77
-43.7%
$0.00
0.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.122,
"optimistic_value": 11.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:24.363927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.224,
"optimistic_value": 10.21,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:44.403848Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 10,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:08.151209Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 43.7135,
"optimistic_value": 42.38,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 41.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:25.843034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.12578119999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 65.0685,
"optimistic_value": 62.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 58.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:19.745231Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f6ac5ed6bafff64dfbc1bcdd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "632334745617362111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "526501587737946185",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:29.747084Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "496102290329975999",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "493850543431869700",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:21.803793Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688036694203",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:23.535532Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:06:58.428622Z"
},
{
"price": 2.43,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "516368541588465506",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:02.987114Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "527627540537458508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:29.176163Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.53 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +259.6% | $3.62 +34.6% | 52.0% | +81.1% | $2.69 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Charged Up 6.7% $5.48 Whiteout 6.7% $5.23 Electrum 16.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.02 Galigator 16.0% $1.98 | $7.13 +187.5% | $2.75 +11.1% | 36.0% | +62.2% | $2.48 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 6.7% $22.79 Derailment 6.7% $14.78 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.27 | $22.79 +256.1% | $6.60 +3.2% | 36.0% | +77.7% | $6.40 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.55 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $9.68 +205.3% | $4.18 +31.9% | 44.0% | +76.3% | $3.17 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.55 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +168.0% | $4.74 +31.4% | 52.0% | +69.8% | $3.61 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.53 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +135.4% | $5.30 +29.1% | 60.0% | +61.1% | $4.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.46 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +102.4% | $5.85 +22.4% | 60.0% | +50.5% | $4.78 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.53 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.67 +82.9% | $6.43 +21.5% | 70.0% | +42.5% | $5.29 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Field-Tested | LongDog  20.0% $323.88 Fully Tuned  40.0% $106.25 Queen's Gambit  40.0% $95.84 | $323.88 +153.6% | $145.61 +14.0% | 20.0% | +69.9% | $127.72 | — |