The Revolution Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Re.built
1x $0.18
Fragments
3x $0.27
Cyberforce
1x $0.34
Resupply
2x $0.16
Nexus
2x $0.18
Sure Grip
1x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Serpent Strike
10.0% $4.41
Emphorosaur-S
10.0% $4.12
Umbral Rabbit
10.0% $3.08
Rising Sun
10.0% $3.08
Control
10.0% $2.76
Sakkaku
10.0% $2.65
Max Win
$4.41 (+70.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.80 (+8.2%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+34.8%
Cost
$2.59
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.59
Ask Price EV $2.80 (+8.2%)
Bid Price EV $2.48 (-4.4%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+8.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.11 (-4.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+12.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $4.41 (+70.3%)
Worst Case $1.41 (-45.6%)
Volatility +34.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$0.76
Avg Loss -$0.61
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.41 (-45.6%)
Std Dev $0.90
Avg Norm Float 0.1496
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 151h 27m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 39S //TOTAL COST $2.59 //ASK PRICE EV $2.80 //BID PRICE EV $2.48 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+8.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-4.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $4.41 //VOLATILITY +34.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.41
+$1.82
+70.3%
$3.69
+$1.10
+42.5%
$0.72
16.3%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.12
+$1.53
+59.0%
$3.56
+$0.97
+37.5%
$0.56
13.5%
—
WIN
10.0%
$3.08
+$0.49
+19.0%
$2.72
+$0.13
+5.0%
$0.36
11.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.08
+$0.49
+18.9%
$2.88
+$0.29
+11.2%
$0.20
6.5%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$2.76
+$0.17
+6.6%
$2.44
-$0.15
-5.8%
$0.32
11.6%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$2.65
+$0.06
+2.5%
$2.41
-$0.18
-6.9%
$0.24
9.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.54
-$0.05
-1.9%
$2.16
-$0.43
-16.6%
$0.38
15.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.37
-$0.22
-8.3%
$2.23
-$0.36
-13.9%
$0.14
6.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.61
-$0.98
-37.9%
$1.46
-$1.13
-43.6%
$0.15
9.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.41
-$1.18
-45.6%
$1.20
-$1.39
-53.7%
$0.21
14.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.085272,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.41,
"optimistic_value": 4.41,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:12.672103Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11952965200000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 2.7605,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 2.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T14:23:45.741024Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11220000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 3.081,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 2.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T02:21:55.223530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11968000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 4.1175,
"optimistic_value": 4.1,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 3.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:44.557721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.29676800000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 3.0795,
"optimistic_value": 3.02,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:45.572929Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 1.41,
"optimistic_value": 1.41,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 1.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:15.956504Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14220213040000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 2.3745,
"optimistic_value": 2.35,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:08.165501Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.6095,
"optimistic_value": 1.55,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:34:45.148792Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10472000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 2.54,
"optimistic_value": 2.54,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:27:42.829372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f51799727ad85c4ea0cd3f62",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "523123091064930586",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:12.672448Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "503983642532410795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:03.199691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "514116741796781502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:03.199691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "517494441497397490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:03.199691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:07.209404Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "507361289453469181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:53.111335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "515242641502062385",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:13.777371Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "501730992854967701",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:13.777371Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "524248990830309435",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:53.111335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "499479989897250085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.144992Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-32:5+collection-set-community-35:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 Control 10.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 Tosai 10.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +112.0% | $2.43 +16.8% | 60.0% | +41.3% | $2.08 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 Control 8.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 12.0% $2.65 Tosai 8.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +120.5% | $2.44 +22.2% | 60.0% | +42.0% | $2.00 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 Control 6.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 14.0% $2.65 Tosai 6.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +120.5% | $2.42 +21.2% | 60.0% | +42.2% | $2.00 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $3.08 Control 12.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 8.0% $2.65 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +109.0% | $2.46 +16.5% | 60.0% | +40.3% | $2.11 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $3.08 Control 14.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 6.0% $2.65 Tosai 14.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +101.4% | $2.44 +11.2% | 60.0% | +39.8% | $2.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Shinobu  23.3% $35.33 Searing Rage  23.3% $24.78 Duality  10.0% $18.23 K.O. Factory  23.3% $14.00 Wild Child  10.0% $10.25 Wicked Sick  10.0% $9.57 | $35.33 +96.1% | $21.10 +17.1% | 56.7% | +52.1% | $18.01 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Printstream  20.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  20.0% $74.69 Temukau  30.0% $52.74 Head Shot  30.0% $46.53 | $127.68 +103.9% | $70.26 +12.2% | 40.0% | +48.6% | $62.61 | — |