The Revolution Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Fragments
3x $0.29
Cyberforce
1x $0.34
Rebel
1x $1.88
Mockingbird
2x $0.38
Sure Grip
2x $0.58
Resupply
1x $1.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Rising Sun
10.0% $12.94
Emphorosaur-S
10.0% $11.80
Control
10.0% $10.05
Wave Breaker
10.0% $9.43
Serpent Strike
10.0% $8.70
Banana Cannon
10.0% $8.08
Max Win
$12.94 (+54.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.00 (-4.5%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+38.2%
Cost
$8.38
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.38
Ask Price EV $8.00 (-4.5%)
Bid Price EV $7.12 (-15.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.38 (-4.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.26 (-15.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.89 (+10.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.26
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $12.94 (+54.4%)
Worst Case $2.65 (-68.3%)
Volatility +38.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$2.20
Avg Loss -$2.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.65 (-68.3%)
Std Dev $3.20
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 151h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 42S //TOTAL COST $8.38 //ASK PRICE EV $8.00 //BID PRICE EV $7.12 //ASK PROFIT $-0.38 (-4.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.26 (-15.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $12.94 //VOLATILITY +38.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$12.94
+$4.56
+54.4%
$11.82
+$3.44
+41.1%
$1.12
8.6%
—
WIN
10.0%
$11.80
+$3.42
+40.9%
$10.16
+$1.78
+21.2%
$1.64
13.9%
—
WIN
10.0%
$10.05
+$1.67
+19.9%
$8.52
+$0.14
+1.7%
$1.53
15.2%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$9.43
+$1.05
+12.5%
$8.98
+$0.60
+7.2%
$0.45
4.7%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$8.70
+$0.32
+3.9%
$7.63
-$0.75
-8.9%
$1.07
12.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.08
-$0.30
-3.6%
$6.70
-$1.68
-20.0%
$1.38
17.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$7.37
-$1.01
-12.1%
$6.21
-$2.17
-25.9%
$1.16
15.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$5.82
-$2.56
-30.6%
$5.64
-$2.74
-32.7%
$0.18
3.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.17
-$5.21
-62.1%
$3.08
-$5.30
-63.2%
$0.09
2.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.65
-$5.73
-68.3%
$2.41
-$5.97
-71.2%
$0.24
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0398088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 8.704,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 7.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:17:12.916885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0558018108,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 10.051,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T23:11:45.509281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.052379999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 7.365,
"optimistic_value": 7.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:28.687846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055872000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 11.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 10.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:46.328444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2505072,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 12.938,
"optimistic_value": 12.49,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:15:57.359440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.1735,
"optimistic_value": 3.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:34:52.503137Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06638634216,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 9.4255,
"optimistic_value": 9.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:12.857743Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 8.081999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.97,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 6.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:47.676724Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048887999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 5.818,
"optimistic_value": 5.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 5.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:24.163969Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f51799727ad85c4ea0cd3f62",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "514116741796781502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:03.199691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "517494441497397490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:03.199691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:07.209404Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "515241791644842529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:20.461370Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496102237882665215",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:41.457200Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "517494336190340410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:13.128570Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "510738192160619110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:13.128570Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "622201718411883996",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.144992Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "626705318055649559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.144992Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "500605092753353075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:35.130123Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-32:5+collection-set-community-35:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 Control 10.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 Tosai 10.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +112.0% | $2.43 +16.8% | 60.0% | +41.3% | $2.08 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 Rising Sun 10.0% $3.08 Control 10.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 | $4.41 +70.3% | $2.80 +8.2% | 60.0% | +25.9% | $2.59 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 Control 8.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 12.0% $2.65 Tosai 8.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +120.5% | $2.44 +22.2% | 60.0% | +42.0% | $2.00 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 Control 6.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 14.0% $2.65 Tosai 6.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +120.5% | $2.42 +21.2% | 60.0% | +42.2% | $2.00 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $3.08 Control 12.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 8.0% $2.65 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +109.0% | $2.46 +16.5% | 60.0% | +40.3% | $2.11 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $3.08 Control 14.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 6.0% $2.65 Tosai 14.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +101.4% | $2.44 +11.2% | 60.0% | +39.8% | $2.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Shinobu  23.3% $35.33 Searing Rage  23.3% $24.78 Duality  10.0% $18.23 K.O. Factory  23.3% $14.00 Wild Child  10.0% $10.25 Wicked Sick  10.0% $9.57 | $35.33 +96.1% | $21.10 +17.1% | 56.7% | +52.1% | $18.01 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Printstream  20.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  20.0% $74.69 Temukau  30.0% $52.74 Head Shot  30.0% $46.53 | $127.68 +103.9% | $70.26 +12.2% | 40.0% | +48.6% | $62.61 | — |