The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Withered Vine
1x $5.29
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
Grey Ghost
1x $0.10
Basket Halftone
3x $0.11
Steel Work
2x $0.13
Citric Acid
1x $0.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
Black & Tan
2.5% $55.01
Quick Sand
2.5% $54.74
New Roots
2.5% $38.92
Arsenic Spill
15.0% $2.32
Rose Hex
15.0% $1.77
Max Win
$151.86 (+2048.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.74 (+23.7%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+371.7%
Cost
$7.07
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.07
Ask Price EV $8.74 (+23.7%)
Bid Price EV $7.13 (+0.8%)
Ask Profit $1.67 (+23.7%)
Bid Profit $0.06 (+0.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.62 (+22.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.67
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+2048.0%)
Worst Case $0.79 (-88.9%)
Volatility +371.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$68.06
Avg Loss -$5.70
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.79 (-88.9%)
Std Dev $26.28
Avg Norm Float 0.1389
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 139h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
—
Field-Tested
$5.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 29S //TOTAL COST $7.07 //ASK PRICE EV $8.74 //BID PRICE EV $7.13 //ASK PROFIT $1.67 (+23.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.06 (+0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +371.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$151.86
+$144.79
+2048.0%
$135.10
+$128.03
+1810.9%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$55.01
+$47.94
+678.1%
$39.99
+$32.92
+465.6%
$15.02
27.3%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$54.74
+$47.67
+674.2%
$33.72
+$26.65
+376.9%
$21.02
38.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$38.92
+$31.85
+450.5%
$30.90
+$23.83
+337.1%
$8.02
20.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$2.32
-$4.75
-67.2%
$2.09
-$4.98
-70.4%
$0.23
9.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$1.77
-$5.30
-75.0%
$1.75
-$5.32
-75.2%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.36
-$5.71
-80.8%
$1.15
-$5.92
-83.7%
$0.21
15.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.04
-$6.03
-85.3%
$1.01
-$6.06
-85.7%
$0.03
2.6%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.93
-$6.14
-86.8%
$0.82
-$6.25
-88.4%
$0.11
11.9%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.79
-$6.28
-88.9%
$0.74
-$6.33
-89.5%
$0.05
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06973242212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.32,
"optimistic_value": 2.32,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:25.005971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.10459856371999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.767,
"optimistic_value": 1.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:50.051528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.083352,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.788,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:02.937915Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.10418999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.037,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:19.661860Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.09424763452,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:24.093885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.076406,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 38.92,
"optimistic_value": 38.01,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 30.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:33:03.468196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.055568,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 54.736999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 45,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 33.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T12:23:22.548052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 55.014,
"optimistic_value": 48.56,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 39.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T14:07:38.266587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f5085ceb49709bec9d7f337a",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.29,
"skin_id": "skin-64f26cedec6c",
"listing_id": "496102237884867371",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64f26cedec6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:47:52.985396Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:15.704460Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "528753387757293309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:02.895006Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176103663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:38.805022Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "524249787960621051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:46:43.900967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:46:43.900967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287550634112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "511864888984769697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:57.741687Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "519746188258260332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.599083Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 2.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 2.5% $35.68 Coral Bloom 15.0% $1.36 Red Tide 15.0% $1.04 | $151.86 +2280.3% | $7.47 +17.1% | 10.0% | +383.8% | $6.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $2.31 Rose Hex 13.3% $1.77 | $151.86 +1066.4% | $16.13 +23.9% | 20.0% | +260.5% | $13.02 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.31 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.77 | $151.86 +669.7% | $23.50 +19.1% | 30.0% | +196.9% | $19.73 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.77 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 | $151.86 +446.9% | $30.74 +10.7% | 40.0% | +151.1% | $27.77 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 12.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 12.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 12.5% $54.74 New Roots 12.5% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.32 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.77 | $151.86 +310.8% | $38.25 +3.5% | 50.0% | +117.9% | $36.97 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Withered Vine 7.5% $36.11 Old Roots  7.5% $20.55 Spalted Wood  7.5% $17.69 Midnight Palm  7.5% $11.88 O-Ranger 11.7% $0.14 Citric Acid 11.7% $0.12 | $36.11 +605.2% | $6.55 +27.9% | 30.0% | +196.6% | $5.12 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  3.3% $523.81 Orange Anolis  3.3% $512.02 Case Hardened  3.3% $123.02 Mulberry  30.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint  30.0% $17.43 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $16.98 | $523.81 +821.4% | $58.98 +3.7% | 10.0% | +218.5% | $56.85 | — |