The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Withered Vine
1x $5.29
Grey Ghost
2x $0.07
Steel Work
3x $0.07
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
Basket Halftone
3x $0.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
New Roots
2.5% $38.92
Quick Sand
2.5% $37.01
Black & Tan
2.5% $35.68
Coral Bloom
15.0% $1.36
Red Tide
15.0% $1.04
Max Win
$151.86 (+2276.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.48 (+17.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+391.4%
Cost
$6.39
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.39
Ask Price EV $7.48 (+17.0%)
Bid Price EV $6.47 (+1.3%)
Ask Profit $1.09 (+17.0%)
Bid Profit $0.08 (+1.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.00 (+15.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.09
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+2276.6%)
Worst Case $0.79 (-87.7%)
Volatility +391.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$59.48
Avg Loss -$5.40
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.79 (-87.7%)
Std Dev $25.01
Avg Norm Float 0.1738
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 138h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
—
Field-Tested
$5.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 09S //TOTAL COST $6.39 //ASK PRICE EV $7.48 //BID PRICE EV $6.47 //ASK PROFIT $1.09 (+17.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.08 (+1.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +391.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$151.86
+$145.47
+2276.6%
$135.10
+$128.71
+2014.2%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$38.92
+$32.53
+509.1%
$30.90
+$24.51
+383.6%
$8.02
20.6%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$37.01
+$30.62
+479.2%
$32.52
+$26.13
+408.9%
$4.49
12.1%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$35.68
+$29.28
+458.3%
$28.54
+$22.15
+346.6%
$7.13
20.0%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.36
-$5.03
-78.8%
$1.15
-$5.24
-82.0%
$0.21
15.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.04
-$5.35
-83.7%
$1.01
-$5.38
-84.2%
$0.03
3.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.01
-$5.39
-84.3%
$0.89
-$5.50
-86.1%
$0.11
11.4%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.94
-$5.45
-85.2%
$0.82
-$5.57
-87.2%
$0.12
13.1%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.80
-$5.59
-87.4%
$0.70
-$5.69
-89.0%
$0.10
12.9%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.79
-$5.60
-87.7%
$0.74
-$5.65
-88.4%
$0.05
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.08725588063,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.13088373403,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.086915,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:30.497008Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.104298,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.788,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:11.348145Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1303725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.0435,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:01:04.302546Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.11793166073000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9434999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:36.434413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.09560650000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 38.92,
"optimistic_value": 38.01,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 30.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:41:43.480225Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06953200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.086915,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 37.0115,
"optimistic_value": 36.42,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 32.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:28:18.295690Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.086915,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 35.675,
"optimistic_value": 37.26,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 28.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:51:18.841075Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f5085ceb49709bec9d7f337a",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.29,
"skin_id": "skin-64f26cedec6c",
"listing_id": "496102237884867371",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64f26cedec6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:26.013814Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "506234592353884932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:55:47.900551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:42.096983Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:15.385530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "526501587736966949",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:48.172888Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176103663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:13.496694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "636838345232107636",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:13.496694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "524249787960621051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:11.112097Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:11.112097Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287550634112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:32.946087Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 2.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 2.5% $54.74 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 15.0% $2.32 Rose Hex 15.0% $1.77 | $151.86 +2048.0% | $8.75 +23.7% | 10.0% | +361.9% | $7.07 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $2.32 Rose Hex 13.3% $1.77 | $151.86 +1067.3% | $16.12 +23.9% | 20.0% | +260.7% | $13.01 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.32 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.77 | $151.86 +674.0% | $23.50 +19.8% | 30.0% | +198.0% | $19.62 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.77 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 | $151.86 +460.8% | $30.74 +13.5% | 40.0% | +154.9% | $27.08 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 12.5% $151.86 New Roots 12.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 12.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 12.5% $35.68 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Red Tide 8.3% $1.04 | $151.86 +389.9% | $33.43 +7.8% | 50.0% | +141.8% | $31.00 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Withered Vine 7.5% $36.11 Old Roots  7.5% $20.55 Spalted Wood  7.5% $17.69 Midnight Palm  7.5% $11.88 O-Ranger 11.7% $0.14 Citric Acid  11.7% $0.12 | $36.11 +571.1% | $6.55 +21.7% | 30.0% | +187.1% | $5.38 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  3.3% $523.81 Orange Anolis  3.3% $512.02 Case Hardened  3.3% $123.02 Mulberry  30.0% $33.42 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $16.98 Glitched Paint  30.0% $16.94 | $523.81 +823.3% | $58.83 +3.7% | 10.0% | +219.0% | $56.73 | — |