The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Old Roots
1x $6.72
Steel Work
4x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.28
Citric Acid
2x $0.31
Sedimentary
1x $0.34
Grey Ghost
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
Black & Tan
2.5% $55.01
Quick Sand
2.5% $54.74
New Roots
2.5% $44.43
Coral Bloom
15.0% $4.96
Red Tide
15.0% $3.32
Max Win
$151.86 (+1095.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.09 (-20.5%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+205.7%
Cost
$12.70
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $12.70
Ask Price EV $10.09 (-20.5%)
Bid Price EV $8.46 (-33.4%)
Ask Profit $-2.61 (-20.5%)
Bid Profit $-4.24 (-33.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.63 (+12.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.61
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.24
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+1095.8%)
Worst Case $1.77 (-86.1%)
Volatility +205.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$63.81
Avg Loss -$9.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.77 (-86.1%)
Std Dev $26.12
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 139h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Old Roots
—
Minimal Wear
$6.72 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 29S //TOTAL COST $12.70 //ASK PRICE EV $10.09 //BID PRICE EV $8.46 //ASK PROFIT $-2.61 (-20.5%) //BID PROFIT $-4.24 (-33.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +205.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$151.86
+$139.16
+1095.8%
$135.10
+$122.40
+963.8%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$55.01
+$42.31
+333.2%
$39.99
+$27.29
+214.9%
$15.02
27.3%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$54.74
+$42.04
+331.0%
$33.72
+$21.02
+165.5%
$21.02
38.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$44.43
+$31.73
+249.8%
$34.32
+$21.62
+170.2%
$10.11
22.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$4.96
-$7.74
-60.9%
$4.92
-$7.78
-61.3%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$3.32
-$9.38
-73.9%
$3.27
-$9.43
-74.3%
$0.05
1.4%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.32
-$10.38
-81.7%
$2.09
-$10.61
-83.5%
$0.23
9.9%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.11
-$10.59
-83.4%
$2.09
-$10.61
-83.5%
$0.02
1.1%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.78
-$10.92
-86.0%
$1.77
-$10.93
-86.1%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.77
-$10.93
-86.1%
$1.75
-$10.95
-86.2%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.03511217195,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.32,
"optimistic_value": 2.32,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:25.005971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.052668222949999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.034975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.767,
"optimistic_value": 1.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:50.051528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:49.693536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:53.652769Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.04745624845,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.1135,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:21.675050Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0384725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 44.428000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 43.49,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 34.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:41.511034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.02798,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.034975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 54.736999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 45,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 33.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T12:23:22.548052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.034975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 55.014,
"optimistic_value": 48.56,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 39.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T14:07:38.266587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f5085ceb49709bec9d7f337a",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 6.72,
"skin_id": "skin-348f142a19ac",
"listing_id": "497228024529094649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Old Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Old Roots",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-348f142a19ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.369553Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:46:43.900967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287550634112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "511864888984769697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:57.741687Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "519746188258260332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.599083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:04.752496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "503983589618643007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:11.393076Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:57.741687Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "648097416171584456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:11.393076Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "510738192173825854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:11.393076Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 2.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 2.5% $54.74 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 15.0% $2.32 Rose Hex 15.0% $1.77 | $151.86 +2048.0% | $8.74 +23.7% | 10.0% | +361.9% | $7.07 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 2.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 2.5% $35.68 Coral Bloom 15.0% $1.36 Red Tide 15.0% $1.04 | $151.86 +2280.3% | $7.47 +17.1% | 10.0% | +383.8% | $6.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $2.31 Rose Hex 13.3% $1.77 | $151.86 +1066.4% | $16.13 +23.9% | 20.0% | +260.5% | $13.02 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.31 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.77 | $151.86 +669.7% | $23.50 +19.1% | 30.0% | +196.9% | $19.73 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.77 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 | $151.86 +446.9% | $30.74 +10.7% | 40.0% | +151.1% | $27.77 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 12.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 12.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 12.5% $54.74 New Roots 12.5% $38.92 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.32 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.77 | $151.86 +310.8% | $38.25 +3.5% | 50.0% | +117.9% | $36.97 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Withered Vine  7.5% $36.11 Old Roots 7.5% $20.55 Spalted Wood  7.5% $17.69 Midnight Palm  7.5% $11.88 O-Ranger  11.7% $0.14 Citric Acid 11.7% $0.12 | $36.11 +605.2% | $6.55 +27.9% | 30.0% | +196.6% | $5.12 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  3.3% $523.81 Orange Anolis  3.3% $512.02 Case Hardened  3.3% $123.02 Mulberry  30.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint  30.0% $17.43 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $16.98 | $523.81 +821.4% | $58.98 +3.7% | 10.0% | +218.5% | $56.85 | — |