The Inferno Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New
Inputs
Walnut
3x $4.29
Grey Smoke
1x $0.20
Grey Smoke
2x $0.24
Blue Tac
2x $0.28
Storm Camo
1x $0.29
Night Camo
1x $0.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Tornado
15.0% $92.65
Gunsmoke
15.0% $7.46
Sour Grapes
7.8% $0.93
Ocean Topo
7.8% $0.87
Electric Blue
7.8% $0.79
Naval Shred Camo
7.8% $0.73
Max Win
$92.65 (+410.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.45 (-14.9%)
Win %
15.0%
Volatility
+179.2%
Cost
$18.15
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.15
Ask Price EV $15.45 (-14.9%)
Bid Price EV $12.94 (-28.7%)
Ask Profit $-2.70 (-14.9%)
Bid Profit $-5.21 (-28.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.51 (+13.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.70
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.21
Risk
Win Probability 15.0%
Loss Probability 85.0%
Best Case $92.65 (+410.4%)
Worst Case $0.37 (-98.0%)
Volatility +179.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 85.0%
Avg Win +$74.50
Avg Loss -$16.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.37 (-98.0%)
Std Dev $32.52
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 155h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Walnut
—
Field-Tested
$4.29 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Walnut
—
Field-Tested
$4.62 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Walnut
—
Field-Tested
$6.99 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Storm Camo
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Night Camo
—
Factory New
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 28S //TOTAL COST $18.15 //ASK PRICE EV $15.45 //BID PRICE EV $12.94 //ASK PROFIT $-2.70 (-14.9%) //BID PROFIT $-5.21 (-28.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 15.0% //BEST CASE $92.65 //VOLATILITY +179.2% //
Possible Outputs · 11
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$92.65
+$74.50
+410.4%
$76.76
+$58.61
+322.9%
$15.89
17.1%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$7.46
-$10.69
-58.9%
$6.84
-$11.31
-62.3%
$0.62
8.3%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.93
-$17.22
-94.9%
$0.80
-$17.35
-95.6%
$0.13
14.0%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.87
-$17.28
-95.2%
$0.85
-$17.30
-95.3%
$0.02
2.7%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.79
-$17.36
-95.7%
$0.72
-$17.43
-96.0%
$0.07
8.5%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.73
-$17.42
-96.0%
$0.66
-$17.49
-96.4%
$0.07
9.3%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.52
-$17.63
-97.1%
$0.48
-$17.67
-97.4%
$0.04
7.7%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.50
-$17.65
-97.2%
$0.42
-$17.73
-97.7%
$0.08
16.1%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.48
-$17.67
-97.3%
$0.43
-$17.72
-97.6%
$0.05
11.1%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.37
-$17.78
-98.0%
$0.36
-$17.79
-98.0%
$0.01
2.7%
—
NUKE
7.8%
$0.37
-$17.78
-98.0%
$0.36
-$17.79
-98.0%
$0.01
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.11152619999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7f6fd04e5efe",
"realistic_value": 92.646,
"optimistic_value": 90,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tornado",
"conservative_value": 76.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Tornado (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:56.764908Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f6fd04e5efe.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.11152619999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"realistic_value": 7.461,
"optimistic_value": 7.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:11.016711Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.04874099999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.5005,
"optimistic_value": 0.49,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:36.218226Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.041777999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.52,
"optimistic_value": 0.52,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:12.837447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.041777999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:00.572641Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.041777999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.8734999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:27.080849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.041777999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.728,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.449802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.055704000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.283947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.047239150529999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.37,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:11:15.120456Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.041777999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.37,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:45:23.362426Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.07777777777777778,
"output_float": 0.0522225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.622869Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f247c0629f8e0b754cac97dd",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.29,
"skin_id": "skin-bfce85fc2e15",
"listing_id": "637964245135819517",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Walnut (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Walnut",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bfce85fc2e15.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:40.724931Z"
},
{
"price": 4.62,
"skin_id": "skin-bfce85fc2e15",
"listing_id": "505109489448178760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Walnut (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Walnut",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bfce85fc2e15.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:40.724931Z"
},
{
"price": 6.99,
"skin_id": "skin-bfce85fc2e15",
"listing_id": "652597772561771786",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Walnut (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Walnut",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bfce85fc2e15.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:40.724931Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-6d3d5d849392",
"listing_id": "509612292233351967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6d3d5d849392.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:08:01.854912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "509612923502742711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:05:22.842801Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "492723793462158945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:05:22.842801Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "509612923502750487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:02:30.798714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-9973f96c93b5",
"listing_id": "490472843632958835",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9973f96c93b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:02:09.285194Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "501731789729153753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:02:30.798714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-aa996ba531f1",
"listing_id": "524249622293717355",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Night Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Night Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa996ba531f1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:03.176403Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tornado 15.0% $92.65 Gunsmoke 15.0% $7.46 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.28 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.19 Sour Grapes 7.8% $0.17 Turquoise Pour 7.8% $0.16 | $92.65 +658.8% | $15.13 +23.9% | 15.0% | +256.3% | $12.21 | — |