The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Forest Leaves
2x $0.10
VariCamo
1x $0.13
Condemned
1x $0.23
Basket Halftone
2x $0.11
Grey Ghost
2x $0.13
Steel Work
2x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Teardown
13.3% $2.81
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.16
Rose Hex
10.0% $1.80
Shredded
10.0% $1.80
Acid Fade
13.3% $1.41
Silver Quartz
13.3% $1.36
Max Win
$2.81 (+102.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.65 (+19.0%)
Win %
56.7%
Volatility
+41.0%
Cost
$1.39
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.39
Ask Price EV $1.65 (+19.0%)
Bid Price EV $1.58 (+13.9%)
Ask Profit $0.26 (+19.0%)
Bid Profit $0.19 (+13.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+5.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.19
Risk
Win Probability 56.7%
Loss Probability 43.3%
Best Case $2.81 (+102.2%)
Worst Case $0.93 (-32.8%)
Volatility +41.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$0.62
Avg Loss -$0.20
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.93 (-32.8%)
Std Dev $0.57
Avg Norm Float 0.1164
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 123h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Condemned
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 25S //TOTAL COST $1.39 //ASK PRICE EV $1.65 //BID PRICE EV $1.58 //ASK PROFIT $0.26 (+19.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.19 (+13.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $2.81 //VOLATILITY +41.0% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$2.81
+$1.42
+102.2%
$2.79
+$1.40
+100.7%
$0.02
0.7%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.16
+$0.77
+55.7%
$2.09
+$0.70
+50.4%
$0.07
3.4%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.80
+$0.41
+29.5%
$1.77
+$0.38
+27.3%
$0.03
1.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.80
+$0.41
+29.5%
$1.77
+$0.38
+27.3%
$0.03
1.7%
—
PAPER WIN
13.3%
$1.41
+$0.02
+1.5%
$1.30
-$0.09
-6.5%
$0.11
7.9%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$1.36
-$0.03
-2.1%
$1.33
-$0.06
-4.3%
$0.03
2.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.36
-$0.03
-2.5%
$1.15
-$0.24
-17.3%
$0.21
15.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.05
-$0.34
-24.5%
$1.00
-$0.39
-28.1%
$0.05
4.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.93
-$0.46
-32.8%
$0.82
-$0.57
-41.0%
$0.11
12.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.069834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:23:00.123208Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.046556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:05.287102Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0034916999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.4115,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:18.535028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05842324079,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1645,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:11.338640Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08763480299,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.058195,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:08.578533Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:42.299198Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0872925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.05,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:49.903305Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.07896258409,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9335,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:29.015522Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f145000a35f9bf84da9383d0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "526501587738165425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:36:15.647562Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "606438509290341941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:36:15.647562Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "507361289454163189",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:15.375222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-64d604ccd5cf",
"listing_id": "509613089304149787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Condemned (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Condemned",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64d604ccd5cf.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:07.410531Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176021007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:22.947954Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288314188992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:22.947954Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:29.081222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:29.081222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:54.001305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627435179952036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:54.001305Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Acid Fade 13.3% $1.41 Silver Quartz 13.3% $1.36 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.05 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.93 | $1.41 +55.1% | $1.01 +11.4% | 66.7% | +24.5% | $0.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.16 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.80 Shredded 8.3% $1.79 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.41 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.36 | $2.81 +97.9% | $1.69 +18.7% | 41.7% | +36.0% | $1.42 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teardown 10.0% $2.81 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Shredded 11.7% $1.80 Acid Fade 10.0% $1.41 Silver Quartz 10.0% $1.36 | $2.81 +99.3% | $1.62 +14.7% | 55.0% | +31.4% | $1.41 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.56 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.44 Nitro  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +126.1% | $8.44 +19.8% | 30.0% | +73.4% | $7.05 | — |