The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Forest Leaves
2x $0.27
VariCamo
2x $0.76
Steel Work
2x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Grey Ghost
1x $0.34
Sedimentary
1x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Coral Bloom
10.0% $4.96
Red Tide
10.0% $3.32
Teardown
13.3% $2.81
Blush Pour
10.0% $2.43
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.16
Rose Hex
10.0% $1.80
Max Win
$4.96 (+4.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.38 (-50.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+22.4%
Cost
$4.76
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.76
Ask Price EV $2.38 (-50.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.32 (-51.4%)
Ask Profit $-2.38 (-50.0%)
Bid Profit $-2.44 (-51.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.38
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.44
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $4.96 (+4.2%)
Worst Case $1.33 (-72.0%)
Volatility +22.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$0.20
Avg Loss -$2.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.33 (-72.0%)
Std Dev $1.07
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 115h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 00S //TOTAL COST $4.76 //ASK PRICE EV $2.38 //BID PRICE EV $2.32 //ASK PROFIT $-2.38 (-50.0%) //BID PROFIT $-2.44 (-51.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $4.96 //VOLATILITY +22.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$4.96
+$0.20
+4.2%
$4.92
+$0.16
+3.4%
$0.04
0.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.32
-$1.44
-30.3%
$3.30
-$1.46
-30.7%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.81
-$1.95
-41.0%
$2.79
-$1.97
-41.4%
$0.02
0.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.43
-$2.33
-48.9%
$2.09
-$2.67
-56.1%
$0.34
14.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.16
-$2.60
-54.5%
$2.09
-$2.67
-56.1%
$0.07
3.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.80
-$2.96
-62.2%
$1.77
-$2.99
-62.8%
$0.03
1.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.79
-$2.97
-62.5%
$1.77
-$2.99
-62.8%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.36
-$3.40
-71.4%
$1.32
-$3.44
-72.3%
$0.04
3.0%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.33
-$3.43
-72.0%
$1.30
-$3.46
-72.7%
$0.03
2.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041861999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:05.596192Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.027908000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:38.103785Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0020931,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.3305,
"optimistic_value": 1.32,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:58:17.129556Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.03502181897,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1645,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:49.841481Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05253269357,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034885,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041861999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.787,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:17.860666Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0523275,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:43:26.884391Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04733413087,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.4345,
"optimistic_value": 2.41,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:44.518019Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f145000a35f9bf84da9383d0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "524249787961878027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:23.986267Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "492724590625240353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:23.986267Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "509613142167334263",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:55.863464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "516368322943257110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:55.863464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:46.445289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627435179952036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:46.445289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "525375740885273911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:27.552235Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "494976390477373962",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:20.865256Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "515242641501277729",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:24.886634Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:07.503550Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teardown 13.3% $2.81 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.16 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.80 Shredded 10.0% $1.79 Silver Quartz 13.3% $1.36 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 | $2.81 +97.9% | $1.64 +15.5% | 43.3% | +34.0% | $1.42 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Silver Quartz 13.3% $1.36 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.33 Red Tide 10.0% $1.02 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.93 | $1.36 +49.5% | $1.00 +10.3% | 66.7% | +23.1% | $0.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.16 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.80 Shredded 8.3% $1.79 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.41 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.36 | $2.81 +97.9% | $1.69 +18.7% | 41.7% | +36.0% | $1.42 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teardown 10.0% $2.81 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Shredded 11.7% $1.79 Silver Quartz 10.0% $1.36 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 | $2.81 +99.3% | $1.61 +14.0% | 45.0% | +31.9% | $1.41 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.65 Nitro  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +126.1% | $8.48 +20.3% | 30.0% | +73.0% | $7.05 | — |