The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Forest Leaves
3x $0.08
VariCamo
1x $0.13
Grey Ghost
2x $0.05
Steel Work
1x $0.07
Basket Halftone
3x $0.10
↓
Possible Outputs
Silver Quartz
13.3% $1.36
Coral Bloom
10.0% $1.36
Acid Fade
13.3% $1.33
Red Tide
10.0% $1.02
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $1.01
Blush Pour
10.0% $0.93
Max Win
$1.36 (+49.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.00 (+10.3%)
Win %
66.7%
Volatility
+34.1%
Cost
$0.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.91
Ask Price EV $1.00 (+10.3%)
Bid Price EV $0.93 (+2.6%)
Ask Profit $0.09 (+10.3%)
Bid Profit $0.02 (+2.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+7.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.09
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Risk
Win Probability 66.7%
Loss Probability 33.3%
Best Case $1.36 (+49.5%)
Worst Case $0.45 (-50.8%)
Volatility +34.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 13.3%
Avg Win +$0.28
Avg Loss -$0.27
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.45 (-50.8%)
Std Dev $0.31
Avg Norm Float 0.1746
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 124h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Speculative Upside · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 36S //TOTAL COST $0.91 //ASK PRICE EV $1.00 //BID PRICE EV $0.93 //ASK PROFIT $0.09 (+10.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.02 (+2.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 66.7% //BEST CASE $1.36 //VOLATILITY +34.1% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$1.36
+$0.45
+49.5%
$1.32
+$0.41
+45.1%
$0.04
3.0%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.36
+$0.45
+49.0%
$1.15
+$0.24
+26.4%
$0.21
15.2%
—
WIN
13.3%
$1.33
+$0.42
+46.2%
$1.30
+$0.39
+42.9%
$0.03
2.3%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$1.02
+$0.11
+12.5%
$1.00
+$0.09
+9.9%
$0.02
2.3%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.01
+$0.09
+10.4%
$0.89
-$0.02
-2.2%
$0.11
11.4%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$0.93
+$0.02
+2.6%
$0.82
-$0.09
-9.9%
$0.11
12.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.77
-$0.14
-14.9%
$0.74
-$0.17
-18.7%
$0.03
4.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.76
-$0.15
-16.1%
$0.70
-$0.21
-23.1%
$0.06
8.3%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.45
-$0.46
-50.8%
$0.41
-$0.50
-54.9%
$0.04
8.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.10476599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 0.4475,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:57:16.389491Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.069844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:38.103785Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0052382999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.3305,
"optimistic_value": 1.32,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:58:17.129556Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08764741021,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13147102801,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.087305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.7635,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:54.082662Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10476599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.7745,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:20.134032Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1309575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:28.774198Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11846083690999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9335,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:23.013266Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f145000a35f9bf84da9383d0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "528753440604744021",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:28.545186Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "529879340431824132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:28.545186Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "520872141037970832",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:28.545186Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "507361289454163189",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:21.024487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "501731842661518925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:30:07.086225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "517494441497828410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:30:07.086225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:41.545614Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "492724643506992549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:57.363198Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176021007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:57.363198Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288314188992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:57.363198Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teardown 13.3% $2.81 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.16 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.80 Shredded 10.0% $1.79 Silver Quartz 13.3% $1.36 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 | $2.81 +97.9% | $1.64 +15.5% | 43.3% | +34.0% | $1.42 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.16 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.80 Shredded 8.3% $1.79 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.41 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.36 | $2.81 +97.9% | $1.69 +18.7% | 41.7% | +36.0% | $1.42 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teardown 10.0% $2.81 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Shredded 11.7% $1.79 Silver Quartz 10.0% $1.36 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 | $2.81 +99.3% | $1.61 +14.0% | 45.0% | +31.9% | $1.41 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.65 Nitro  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +126.1% | $8.48 +20.3% | 30.0% | +73.0% | $7.05 | — |