The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Pipsqueak
1x $0.60
Warm Blooded
5x $0.36
Fraise Crane
1x $0.48
Earth Mandala
1x $0.52
Sky Mandala
2x $0.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
45.0% $7.15
Monster Melt
3.3% $4.28
Eye of Zapems
3.3% $4.05
Sweet Little Angels
3.3% $4.05
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.56
Max Win
$7.15 (+41.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.78 (-5.1%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+43.4%
Cost
$5.04
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.04
Ask Price EV $4.78 (-5.1%)
Bid Price EV $4.38 (-13.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.26 (-5.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.66 (-13.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.40 (+8.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.26
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.66
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $7.15 (+41.8%)
Worst Case $2.56 (-49.1%)
Volatility +43.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$2.11
Avg Loss -$2.19
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.56 (-49.1%)
Std Dev $2.19
Avg Norm Float 0.4456
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 10m
Oldest Output Price 19m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Execution Sensitive
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 29M 12S //TOTAL COST $5.04 //ASK PRICE EV $4.78 //BID PRICE EV $4.38 //ASK PROFIT $-0.26 (-5.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.66 (-13.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $7.15 //VOLATILITY +43.4% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
45.0%
$7.15
+$2.11
+41.8%
$6.60
+$1.56
+31.0%
$0.55
7.7%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$4.28
-$0.76
-15.1%
$3.94
-$1.10
-21.8%
$0.34
7.9%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$4.05
-$0.99
-19.6%
$4.00
-$1.04
-20.6%
$0.05
1.3%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Field-Tested | ƒ 0.3653756
The Overpass 2024 Collection
LOSS
3.3%
$4.05
-$0.99
-19.6%
$4.02
-$1.02
-20.2%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$2.56
-$2.48
-49.1%
$2.25
-$2.79
-55.4%
$0.31
12.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.31190599999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.1475,
"optimistic_value": 6.85,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:13.311211Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.31190599999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5639999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:09.467393Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.378743,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 4.054,
"optimistic_value": 4.04,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:42.140631Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.36537559999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 4.0505,
"optimistic_value": 4.04,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 4.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:51:21.086938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.33418499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 4.277,
"optimistic_value": 4.27,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 3.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:38.811297Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ef6b7193b9e00c465630e5c7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:51:07.136944Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605889841763211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.918131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "512990789045324795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.918131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "521997988016181858",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789730622481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:18.670364Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "502857689862889576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:01.710864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "497228137697395481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "493850438107199332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:07.974238Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "526501587737763809",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:07.974238Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $7.15 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 3.3% $4.28 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $3.78 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.56 | $7.15 +49.5% | $4.78 +0.1% | 45.0% | +45.7% | $4.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.15 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +145.0% | $5.42 +34.8% | 40.0% | +90.3% | $4.02 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.15 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +151.9% | $5.12 +31.1% | 35.0% | +89.2% | $3.91 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.41 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.69 | $13.58 +55.9% | $10.50 +20.6% | 73.3% | +16.3% | $8.71 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.11 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +158.5% | $4.58 +20.1% | 40.0% | +71.1% | $3.81 | — |