The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Wurst Hölle
1x $1.17
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Warm Blooded
4x $2.36
Sky Mandala
2x $3.52
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
3.3% $26.95
Exothermic
45.0% $26.56
Sweet Little Angels
3.3% $25.66
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $24.63
Monster Melt
3.3% $20.38
Max Win
$26.95 (-3.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.47 (-8.8%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+4.8%
Cost
$27.93
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.93
Ask Price EV $25.47 (-8.8%)
Bid Price EV $24.14 (-13.6%)
Ask Profit $-2.46 (-8.8%)
Bid Profit $-3.79 (-13.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.32 (+4.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.79
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $26.95 (-3.5%)
Worst Case $20.38 (-27.0%)
Volatility +4.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 3.3%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$2.46
Bottom 5% Outcome $24.63 (-11.8%)
Std Dev $1.34
Avg Norm Float 0.0693
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 8m
Oldest Output Price 69h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 28M 46S //TOTAL COST $27.93 //ASK PRICE EV $25.47 //BID PRICE EV $24.14 //ASK PROFIT $-2.46 (-8.8%) //BID PROFIT $-3.79 (-13.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $26.95 //VOLATILITY +4.8% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
3.3%
$26.95
-$0.98
-3.5%
$26.65
-$1.28
-4.6%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$26.56
-$1.38
-4.9%
$26.03
-$1.90
-6.8%
$0.52
2.0%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0568588
The Overpass 2024 Collection
LOSS
3.3%
$25.66
-$2.27
-8.1%
$25.62
-$2.31
-8.3%
$0.04
0.2%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$24.63
-$3.30
-11.8%
$22.28
-$5.65
-20.2%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$20.38
-$7.55
-27.0%
$19.85
-$8.08
-28.9%
$0.53
2.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048538,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.555,
"optimistic_value": 26.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:59.580467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048538,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.058939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 26.947499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 26.65,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:56.236095Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.056858799999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052004999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.381,
"optimistic_value": 20.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:43.547691Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ef6b7193b9e00c465630e5c7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:03.270196Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "507361289453636653",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.714476Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.714476Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $7.15 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 3.3% $4.28 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $3.78 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.56 | $7.15 +49.5% | $4.78 +0.1% | 45.0% | +45.7% | $4.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.15 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +145.0% | $5.42 +34.8% | 40.0% | +90.3% | $4.02 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.15 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +151.9% | $5.12 +31.1% | 35.0% | +89.2% | $3.91 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.41 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.69 | $13.58 +55.9% | $10.50 +20.6% | 73.3% | +16.3% | $8.71 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.78 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.11 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +158.5% | $4.58 +20.1% | 40.0% | +71.1% | $3.81 | — |