The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +32.2%Factory New -8.1%Well-Worn +5.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Pipsqueak

1x $0.34

Fraise Crane

1x $0.35

Warm Blooded

4x $0.36

Sky Mandala

2x $0.40

Earth Mandala

2x $0.46

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

45.0% $9.85

Monster Melt

3.3% $3.97

Sweet Little Angels

3.3% $3.60

Eye of Zapems

3.3% $3.11

Sleeping Potion

45.0% $2.17

Max Win

$9.85 (+125.9%)

EV (ROI %)

$5.77 (+32.2%)

Win %

45.0%

Volatility

+85.3%

Cost

$4.36

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $4.36

Ask Price EV $5.77 (+32.2%)

Bid Price EV $4.21 (-3.5%)

Ask Profit $1.41 (+32.2%)

Bid Profit $-0.15 (-3.5%)

Liquidity Gap $1.56 (+35.7%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.41

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.15

Risk

Win Probability 45.0%

Loss Probability 55.0%

Best Case $9.85 (+125.9%)

Worst Case $2.17 (-50.2%)

Volatility +85.3%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.3%

Avg Win +$5.49

Avg Loss -$1.94

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.17 (-50.2%)

Std Dev $3.72

Avg Norm Float 0.5443

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 19m

Oldest Output Price 144h 11m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.35 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.46 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.46 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.49 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 58S //TOTAL COST $4.36 //ASK PRICE EV $5.77 //BID PRICE EV $4.21 //ASK PROFIT $1.41 (+32.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.15 (-3.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +85.3% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.38100999999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 9.8505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.77,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.38100999999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.1715,
      "optimistic_value": 2.14,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 1.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:55.782048Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.462655,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 3.114,
      "optimistic_value": 3.1,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 2.96,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:18.841035Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.446326,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 3.595,
      "optimistic_value": 3.49,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 3.31,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:14.819991Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.408225,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 3.9675000000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 3.95,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T14:41:55.011379Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_ef6b7193b9e00c465630e5c7",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
      "listing_id": "528753387757469169",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:35:16.066853Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "525375688036657555",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.676723Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "521997988014963726",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:31.782552Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:30.625958Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "659356415309640970",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:48.731411Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "499479989896979941",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "502857689862732112",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:46.048994Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841164747",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494336189226390",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:48.731411Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Exothermic 45.0% $7.65 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 3.3% $4.20 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $4.06 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.46	$7.65 +61.7%	$4.97 +5.0%	45.0%	+52.3%	$4.73	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17	$9.85 +143.8%	$5.21 +28.9%	35.0%	+85.4%	$4.04	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.17	$9.85 +153.2%	$4.94 +27.0%	43.3%	+83.9%	$3.89	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.17	$9.85 +159.9%	$4.67 +23.2%	41.7%	+80.3%	$3.79	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.60 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.11 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.17	$9.85 +159.9%	$4.54 +19.8%	40.0%	+71.8%	$3.79	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.50	$13.94 +58.8%	$10.49 +19.5%	73.3%	+17.8%	$8.78	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.60 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $3.11 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17	$9.85 +106.9%	$5.52 +16.0%	40.0%	+75.1%	$4.76	—