The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Safehouse Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Fusion
2x $0.25
Bulkhead
1x $0.53
Mainframe
2x $0.93
Forest Leaves
2x $0.27
VariCamo
3x $0.73
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
12.5% $17.37
Teardown
16.7% $2.81
Exchanger
12.5% $2.42
Co-Processor
12.5% $2.23
Facility Negative
12.5% $2.23
Acid Fade
16.7% $1.41
Max Win
$17.37 (+177.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.96 (-36.8%)
Win %
12.5%
Volatility
+81.3%
Cost
$6.27
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.27
Ask Price EV $3.96 (-36.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.85 (-38.6%)
Ask Profit $-2.31 (-36.8%)
Bid Profit $-2.42 (-38.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.11 (+1.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.31
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.42
Risk
Win Probability 12.5%
Loss Probability 87.5%
Best Case $17.37 (+177.0%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-78.3%)
Volatility +81.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 87.5%
Avg Win +$11.10
Avg Loss -$4.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-78.3%)
Std Dev $5.09
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 149h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Factory New
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 48S //TOTAL COST $6.27 //ASK PRICE EV $3.96 //BID PRICE EV $3.85 //ASK PROFIT $-2.31 (-36.8%) //BID PROFIT $-2.42 (-38.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 12.5% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +81.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$17.37
+$11.10
+177.0%
$16.98
+$10.71
+170.8%
$0.39
2.2%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$2.81
-$3.46
-55.2%
$2.79
-$3.48
-55.5%
$0.02
0.7%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.42
-$3.85
-61.5%
$2.37
-$3.90
-62.2%
$0.05
1.9%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.23
-$4.04
-64.4%
$2.04
-$4.23
-67.5%
$0.19
8.7%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.23
-$4.04
-64.5%
$2.16
-$4.11
-65.6%
$0.07
3.0%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$1.41
-$4.86
-77.5%
$1.30
-$4.97
-79.3%
$0.11
7.9%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$1.36
-$4.91
-78.3%
$1.33
-$4.94
-78.8%
$0.03
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:23:00.123208Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.02798,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:05.287102Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0020984999999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.4115,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:18.535028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0580585,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.034975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:19.160912Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.034975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:23.659475Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.034975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:21:53.126268Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ee1f831850a74f934dc3ae8b",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "501731624157248981",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:20.104467Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "491598690699114818",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:20.104467Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "514116688950858414",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:17.980309Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "528753335313332721",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:47.481865Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "523123091079502558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:47.481865Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "524249787961878027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:45.601075Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "492724590625240353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:45.601075Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "525374890948652959",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:36:44.230266Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "509613142167334263",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:36:44.230266Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "516368322943257110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:36:44.230266Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:5+collection-set-safehouse:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Safehouse Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Acheron 12.5% $2.36 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.23 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.41 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.36 | $2.42 +75.0% | $1.69 +22.5% | 66.7% | +34.4% | $1.38 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Safehouse Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Acheron 12.5% $2.36 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.41 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.36 Facility Negative 12.5% $0.48 Teardown 16.7% $0.45 Co-Processor 12.5% $0.40 | $2.36 +140.6% | $0.99 +1.2% | 45.8% | +65.4% | $0.98 | — |