The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Basket Halftone
2x $0.10
Grey Ghost
3x $0.12
Steel Work
2x $0.14
Steel Sentinel
1x $0.12
Copper Fiber
2x $0.16
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
7.5% $3.08
Late Night Transit
7.5% $2.82
2A2F
7.5% $2.67
Run Run Run
7.5% $2.24
Arsenic Spill
11.7% $2.12
Rose Hex
11.7% $1.80
Max Win
$3.08 (+108.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.75 (+18.4%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+51.1%
Cost
$1.48
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.48
Ask Price EV $1.75 (+18.4%)
Bid Price EV $1.68 (+13.6%)
Ask Profit $0.27 (+18.4%)
Bid Profit $0.20 (+13.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+4.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.20
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $3.08 (+108.1%)
Worst Case $0.81 (-45.0%)
Volatility +51.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$0.90
Avg Loss -$0.44
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.81 (-45.0%)
Std Dev $0.76
Avg Norm Float 0.1385
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 125h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 08S //TOTAL COST $1.48 //ASK PRICE EV $1.75 //BID PRICE EV $1.68 //ASK PROFIT $0.27 (+18.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.20 (+13.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $3.08 //VOLATILITY +51.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$3.08
+$1.60
+108.1%
$3.05
+$1.57
+106.1%
$0.03
1.0%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$2.82
+$1.34
+90.5%
$2.81
+$1.33
+89.9%
$0.01
0.4%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$2.67
+$1.19
+80.4%
$2.57
+$1.09
+73.6%
$0.10
3.7%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$2.24
+$0.76
+51.6%
$2.22
+$0.74
+50.0%
$0.02
1.0%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$2.12
+$0.64
+43.1%
$2.09
+$0.61
+41.2%
$0.03
1.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$1.80
+$0.32
+21.6%
$1.77
+$0.29
+19.6%
$0.03
1.7%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$1.36
-$0.12
-8.4%
$1.15
-$0.33
-22.3%
$0.21
15.2%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$1.02
-$0.46
-30.8%
$1.00
-$0.48
-32.4%
$0.02
2.3%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.95
-$0.53
-35.6%
$0.82
-$0.66
-44.6%
$0.13
14.0%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$0.81
-$0.67
-45.0%
$0.74
-$0.74
-50.0%
$0.07
9.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.06950152006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1175,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:15.096454Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.10425221086,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.06923,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:16.360277Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.083076,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:30.032773Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.10384499999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:03.723582Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.09393555626,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:15.925669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.1190756,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 2.67,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 2.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.13846,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 3.0805,
"optimistic_value": 3.07,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:18.246642Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.13846,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 2.82,
"optimistic_value": 2.82,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 2.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:13.287968Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.1033707745,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:51.158892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_edd81a80ccdffacd711442fc",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "510739041954330970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:37.526089Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176009775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:37.526089Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "512990789045188967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:03.029061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:03.029061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:03.029061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:11.603854Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627435179952036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:11.603854Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532511991",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:57.943587Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "521998040962764834",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:27.159551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "496102343225886671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:27.159551Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Run Run Run 7.5% $2.24 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.02 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.95 Green Line 7.5% $0.94 | $2.24 +138.7% | $1.04 +10.7% | 54.2% | +37.1% | $0.94 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 7.5% $28.83 2A2F 7.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 7.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 7.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 11.7% $4.96 Red Tide 11.7% $3.32 | $28.83 +316.6% | $7.43 +7.4% | 30.0% | +104.0% | $6.92 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Coral Bloom 6.7% $4.96 Red Tide 6.7% $3.32 | $28.83 +217.1% | $12.13 +33.4% | 60.0% | +83.9% | $9.09 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 5.0% $4.96 Red Tide 5.0% $3.32 | $28.83 +178.3% | $13.70 +32.2% | 70.0% | +71.6% | $10.36 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.33 | $28.83 +251.6% | $10.57 +28.9% | 50.0% | +93.9% | $8.20 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Coral Bloom 10.0% $4.96 Red Tide 10.0% $3.33 | $28.83 +291.7% | $9.00 +22.2% | 40.0% | +103.1% | $7.36 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  10.0% $64.86 Derailment  10.0% $41.46 Mulberry  23.3% $33.42 Charged Up  10.0% $22.60 Bleeding Edge  23.3% $16.98 Glitched Paint  23.3% $16.82 | $64.86 +169.1% | $28.57 +18.6% | 43.3% | +61.7% | $24.10 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Nouveau Rouge  30.0% $178.22 | $597.10 +96.8% | $365.51 +20.5% | 35.0% | +58.1% | $303.33 | — |