The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Grey Ghost
2x $0.38
Steel Work
3x $0.66
Sedimentary
1x $1.19
Straight Dimes
1x $0.52
Rain Station
1x $0.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
7.5% $28.83
2A2F
7.5% $18.79
Late Night Transit
7.5% $14.75
Run Run Run
7.5% $11.23
Coral Bloom
11.7% $4.96
Red Tide
11.7% $3.33
Max Win
$28.83 (+306.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.43 (+4.9%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+114.1%
Cost
$7.09
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $7.09
Ask Price EV $7.43 (+4.9%)
Bid Price EV $6.98 (-1.5%)
Ask Profit $0.34 (+4.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.11 (-1.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.45 (+6.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $28.83 (+306.6%)
Worst Case $1.79 (-74.8%)
Volatility +114.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$11.31
Avg Loss -$4.36
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.79 (-74.8%)
Std Dev $8.09
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 30m
Oldest Output Price 152h 27m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Straight Dimes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Rain Station
—
Factory New
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 59S //TOTAL COST $7.09 //ASK PRICE EV $7.43 //BID PRICE EV $6.98 //ASK PROFIT $0.34 (+4.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-1.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $28.83 //VOLATILITY +114.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$28.83
+$21.74
+306.6%
$26.37
+$19.28
+271.9%
$2.46
8.5%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$18.79
+$11.70
+165.0%
$18.05
+$10.96
+154.6%
$0.74
3.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$14.75
+$7.66
+108.0%
$14.50
+$7.41
+104.5%
$0.25
1.7%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$11.23
+$4.14
+58.4%
$9.36
+$2.27
+32.0%
$1.87
16.6%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$4.96
-$2.13
-30.0%
$4.92
-$2.17
-30.6%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$3.33
-$3.76
-53.0%
$3.31
-$3.78
-53.3%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$2.37
-$4.72
-66.6%
$2.09
-$5.00
-70.5%
$0.28
11.8%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$2.16
-$4.93
-69.5%
$2.09
-$5.00
-70.5%
$0.07
3.3%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$1.80
-$5.29
-74.6%
$1.77
-$5.32
-75.0%
$0.03
1.7%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$1.79
-$5.30
-74.8%
$1.77
-$5.32
-75.0%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.03512221117,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.162,
"optimistic_value": 2.12,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:46.499762Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.05268328177,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.034985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:42:42.203281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.787,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:58.353684Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0524775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.33,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:19.646394Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.04746981707,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.37,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:46.009381Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.060174200000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 18.791999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 18.68,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 18.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T07:28:16.838420Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 28.8275,
"optimistic_value": 28.53,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 26.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:45.324506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 14.75,
"optimistic_value": 14.75,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 14.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T13:50:52.575011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.05223785275,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 11.228,
"optimistic_value": 11.13,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 9.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:20.847625Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_edd81a80ccdffacd711442fc",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "525375740885273911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:02.723778Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "528752590489954389",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:24.443034Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:24.443034Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "490472843632895547",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:14.055111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630080589663399076",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:14.055111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "500605092737805575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:14.055111Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "501731842661951177",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:00.929398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0c162dc3dadb",
"listing_id": "496102343225883647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Straight Dimes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0c162dc3dadb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:02:16.728575Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-1a861a1ce86e",
"listing_id": "492724643507883441",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rain Station (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Rain Station",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a861a1ce86e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:56.433173Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "493850543432011432",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Factory New)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:26:02.896613Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 7.5% $3.09 Late Night Transit 7.5% $2.82 2A2F 7.5% $2.66 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.46 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 | $3.09 +113.1% | $1.77 +21.7% | 53.3% | +39.7% | $1.45 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Run Run Run 7.5% $2.46 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.02 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Green Line 7.5% $0.92 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.88 | $2.46 +164.9% | $1.05 +12.7% | 42.5% | +43.8% | $0.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Coral Bloom 6.7% $4.96 Red Tide 6.7% $3.33 | $28.83 +205.1% | $12.14 +28.4% | 60.0% | +80.7% | $9.45 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 5.0% $4.96 Red Tide 5.0% $3.33 | $28.83 +165.2% | $13.70 +26.0% | 70.0% | +68.3% | $10.87 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.33 | $28.83 +242.8% | $10.58 +25.8% | 50.0% | +91.5% | $8.41 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 10.0% $3.09 Late Night Transit 10.0% $2.82 2A2F 10.0% $2.66 Run Run Run 10.0% $2.46 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.02 | $3.09 +122.3% | $1.69 +21.3% | 40.0% | +52.8% | $1.39 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  26.7% $15.94 Derailment  6.7% $14.74 Whiteout  6.7% $9.68 Charged Up  6.7% $7.43 Glitched Paint  26.7% $6.85 Bleeding Edge  26.7% $5.46 | $15.94 +92.5% | $9.66 +16.6% | 40.0% | +53.2% | $8.28 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Nouveau Rouge  30.0% $178.22 | $597.10 +96.6% | $365.51 +20.3% | 35.0% | +58.0% | $303.77 | — |