The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Grey Ghost
2x $0.05
Steel Work
2x $0.07
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
Basket Halftone
2x $0.10
Copper Fiber
2x $0.08
Steel Sentinel
1x $0.12
↓
Possible Outputs
Run Run Run
7.5% $2.46
Coral Bloom
11.7% $1.36
Red Tide
11.7% $1.02
Arsenic Spill
11.7% $1.01
Green Line
7.5% $0.92
Blush Pour
11.7% $0.88
Max Win
$2.46 (+164.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.05 (+12.7%)
Win %
42.5%
Volatility
+47.5%
Cost
$0.93
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.93
Ask Price EV $1.05 (+12.7%)
Bid Price EV $0.97 (+3.8%)
Ask Profit $0.12 (+12.7%)
Bid Profit $0.04 (+3.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+8.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.12
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 42.5%
Loss Probability 57.5%
Best Case $2.46 (+164.9%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-23.7%)
Volatility +47.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$0.43
Avg Loss -$0.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-23.7%)
Std Dev $0.44
Avg Norm Float 0.1984
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 126h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 33S //TOTAL COST $0.93 //ASK PRICE EV $1.05 //BID PRICE EV $0.97 //ASK PROFIT $0.12 (+12.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.04 (+3.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 42.5% //BEST CASE $2.46 //VOLATILITY +47.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$2.46
+$1.53
+164.9%
$2.22
+$1.29
+138.7%
$0.24
9.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$1.36
+$0.43
+45.8%
$1.15
+$0.22
+23.7%
$0.21
15.2%
—
SMALL WIN
11.7%
$1.02
+$0.09
+9.4%
$1.00
+$0.07
+7.5%
$0.02
1.7%
—
PAPER WIN
11.7%
$1.01
+$0.07
+8.1%
$0.89
-$0.04
-4.3%
$0.11
11.4%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.92
-$0.01
-0.7%
$0.89
-$0.04
-4.3%
$0.03
3.6%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.88
-$0.05
-5.2%
$0.82
-$0.11
-11.8%
$0.06
7.0%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.83
-$0.10
-10.8%
$0.82
-$0.11
-11.8%
$0.01
1.2%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.82
-$0.11
-12.2%
$0.74
-$0.19
-20.4%
$0.08
9.4%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.74
-$0.19
-20.3%
$0.70
-$0.23
-24.7%
$0.04
5.5%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.71
-$0.22
-23.7%
$0.70
-$0.23
-24.7%
$0.01
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0995890624,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.14938349439999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.741,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:12.268433Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.11903999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.8170000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:11.222413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.1488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.017,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:17.697033Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.1346007104,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.882,
"optimistic_value": 0.84,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:18.063232Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.170624,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:59.836593Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.1984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 0.9235,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:18.919983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.1984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 0.83,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:07.517021Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.14812048,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.4635000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.46,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:21:58.249118Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_edd81a80ccdffacd711442fc",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "525375740885754187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:36.785762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:05:53.378390Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:40.025743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "524249840859469287",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:28.670008Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176009775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:28.670008Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "515242641502135501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:49.774898Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "506235442367968452",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:04:09.119613Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "524249840858755191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:05:23.109762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "493850543431657588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:05:23.109762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532511991",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:04.422658Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 7.5% $3.09 Late Night Transit 7.5% $2.82 2A2F 7.5% $2.66 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.46 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 | $3.09 +113.1% | $1.77 +21.7% | 53.3% | +39.7% | $1.45 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 7.5% $28.83 2A2F 7.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 7.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 7.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 11.7% $4.96 Red Tide 11.7% $3.33 | $28.83 +306.6% | $7.43 +4.9% | 30.0% | +101.5% | $7.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Coral Bloom 6.7% $4.96 Red Tide 6.7% $3.33 | $28.83 +205.1% | $12.14 +28.4% | 60.0% | +80.7% | $9.45 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 5.0% $4.96 Red Tide 5.0% $3.33 | $28.83 +165.2% | $13.70 +26.0% | 70.0% | +68.3% | $10.87 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.33 | $28.83 +242.8% | $10.58 +25.8% | 50.0% | +91.5% | $8.41 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 10.0% $3.09 Late Night Transit 10.0% $2.82 2A2F 10.0% $2.66 Run Run Run 10.0% $2.46 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.02 | $3.09 +122.3% | $1.69 +21.3% | 40.0% | +52.8% | $1.39 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  26.7% $15.94 Derailment  6.7% $14.74 Whiteout  6.7% $9.68 Charged Up  6.7% $7.43 Glitched Paint  26.7% $6.85 Bleeding Edge  26.7% $5.46 | $15.94 +92.5% | $9.66 +16.6% | 40.0% | +53.2% | $8.28 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Nouveau Rouge  30.0% $178.22 | $597.10 +96.6% | $365.51 +20.3% | 35.0% | +58.0% | $303.77 | — |