The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Zubastick
3x $0.17
Bock Blocks
1x $0.25
Fragment
1x $0.27
Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
1x $0.28
Rose Hex
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $5.01
Electrum
10.0% $3.09
Glitched Paint
16.7% $2.99
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $2.10
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.02
Galigator
10.0% $1.98
Max Win
$5.01 (+89.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.66 (+0.9%)
Win %
43.3%
Volatility
+45.4%
Cost
$2.64
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.64
Ask Price EV $2.66 (+0.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.38 (-9.7%)
Ask Profit $0.02 (+0.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.26 (-9.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.28 (+10.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.26
Risk
Win Probability 43.3%
Loss Probability 56.7%
Best Case $5.01 (+89.6%)
Worst Case $1.31 (-50.4%)
Volatility +45.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.15
Avg Loss -$0.84
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.31 (-50.4%)
Std Dev $1.20
Avg Norm Float 0.4457
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 143h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 13S //TOTAL COST $2.64 //ASK PRICE EV $2.66 //BID PRICE EV $2.38 //ASK PROFIT $0.02 (+0.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.26 (-9.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 43.3% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +45.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$5.01
+$2.37
+89.6%
$4.66
+$2.02
+76.5%
$0.35
6.9%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$3.09
+$0.45
+17.1%
$2.55
-$0.09
-3.4%
$0.54
17.5%
—
SMALL WIN
16.7%
$2.99
+$0.35
+13.4%
$2.76
+$0.12
+4.5%
$0.23
7.8%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$2.10
-$0.54
-20.5%
$1.91
-$0.73
-27.7%
$0.19
9.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.02
-$0.62
-23.4%
$1.87
-$0.77
-29.2%
$0.15
7.6%
—
LOSS THIN BID
10.0%
$1.98
-$0.66
-25.0%
$1.30
-$1.34
-50.8%
$0.68
34.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.40
-$1.24
-47.1%
$1.30
-$1.34
-50.8%
$0.10
7.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.31
-$1.33
-50.4%
$1.26
-$1.38
-52.3%
$0.05
3.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3342675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.2986123,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9935,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:58.502923Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.267414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:51.265448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44569,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.0235,
"optimistic_value": 2.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 1.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:09:27.454296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44569,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 1.9809999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T04:16:23.451221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44569,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 3.0915,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 2.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:00.395844Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44569,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.3105,
"optimistic_value": 1.3,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:06.570061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44569,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.3975,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:33:34.503159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_edae1c1b7d752a32401c3e50",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287550965708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.216628Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "493850490549435088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.216628Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "644719809067758207",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.216628Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "493850490550394308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:24.244280Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:33.076565Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:25.126328Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:25.126328Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "509613089304634059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:02.838057Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:17:18.870821Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:17:18.870821Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.85 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +234.2% | $6.12 +28.2% | 50.0% | +92.2% | $4.77 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.32 | $33.42 +168.6% | $13.44 +8.0% | 50.0% | +77.3% | $12.44 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Electrum 10.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Firebreathing 10.0% $12.97 Galigator 10.0% $11.37 | $33.42 +94.4% | $17.66 +2.7% | 26.7% | +40.3% | $17.19 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 16.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.99 Electrum 10.0% $2.61 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Firebreathing 10.0% $1.83 Galigator 10.0% $1.63 | $5.01 +99.5% | $2.55 +1.7% | 43.3% | +43.8% | $2.51 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +182.2% | $7.45 +31.8% | 70.0% | +81.4% | $5.65 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +290.7% | $5.37 +31.5% | 52.0% | +102.2% | $4.08 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.85 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +210.1% | $6.74 +31.1% | 60.0% | +88.2% | $5.14 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.85 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +151.8% | $8.24 +30.1% | 53.3% | +72.4% | $6.33 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.59 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +129.7% | $8.88 +28.0% | 60.0% | +66.2% | $6.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.80 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +310.9% | $4.69 +20.8% | 44.0% | +99.4% | $3.88 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $3.01 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.10 | $5.01 +120.6% | $2.72 +19.8% | 45.3% | +37.8% | $2.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $5.01 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 3.3% $2.99 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $2.10 | $5.01 +113.0% | $2.66 +13.1% | 42.7% | +33.5% | $2.35 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Kintsugi  30.0% $10.58 Deathgaze  30.0% $10.04 | $35.39 +117.1% | $18.94 +16.2% | 40.0% | +69.0% | $16.30 | — |