The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Dark Polymer
1x $0.27
Fragment
2x $0.28
Fusion
1x $0.42
RMX
1x $0.48
Rose Hex
2x $0.34
Shredded
1x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
16.7% $7.07
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $5.59
Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Max Win
$15.94 (+239.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.05 (+28.9%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+102.2%
Cost
$4.69
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.69
Ask Price EV $6.05 (+28.9%)
Bid Price EV $5.41 (+15.3%)
Ask Profit $1.36 (+28.9%)
Bid Profit $0.72 (+15.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.64 (+13.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.36
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.72
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+239.9%)
Worst Case $1.75 (-62.6%)
Volatility +102.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.84
Avg Loss -$2.13
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.75 (-62.6%)
Std Dev $4.79
Avg Norm Float 0.1995
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 142h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
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Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 32S //TOTAL COST $4.69 //ASK PRICE EV $6.05 //BID PRICE EV $5.41 //ASK PROFIT $1.36 (+28.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.72 (+15.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +102.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$15.94
+$11.25
+239.9%
$14.54
+$9.85
+210.0%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.07
+$2.38
+50.7%
$6.21
+$1.52
+32.4%
$0.86
12.1%
—
WIN
16.7%
$5.59
+$0.90
+19.1%
$5.14
+$0.45
+9.6%
$0.45
8.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.11
-$0.58
-12.3%
$3.61
-$1.08
-23.0%
$0.50
12.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.79
-$1.90
-40.6%
$2.32
-$2.37
-50.5%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.19
-$2.50
-53.4%
$1.74
-$2.95
-62.9%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.98
-$2.71
-57.8%
$1.63
-$3.06
-65.2%
$0.35
17.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.75
-$2.94
-62.6%
$1.63
-$3.06
-65.2%
$0.12
7.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.149625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.133665,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.067,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:30.494706Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.5855,
"optimistic_value": 5.47,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:02.484310Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7525,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:43.848619Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.9769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.97,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:28.440393Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_edae1c1b7d752a32401c3e50",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "526501587737529269",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:54.742691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:23.575318Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "500605889841391331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:00:52.418365Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044885847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:19.647632Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "523123888072500958",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:44.527698Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:10.920140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:10.920140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:16.445766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744253",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:55.105383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "519746188258766852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.143615Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.22 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.28 | $33.42 +168.6% | $13.44 +8.1% | 50.0% | +77.3% | $12.44 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 16.7% $5.01 Electrum 10.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.96 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.02 Galigator 10.0% $1.98 | $5.01 +102.7% | $2.66 +7.7% | 43.3% | +42.3% | $2.47 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 16.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.96 Electrum 10.0% $2.61 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Firebreathing 10.0% $1.83 Galigator 10.0% $1.63 | $5.01 +109.5% | $2.55 +6.6% | 43.3% | +45.9% | $2.39 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Electrum 10.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.22 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Firebreathing 10.0% $12.97 Galigator 10.0% $11.46 | $33.42 +94.1% | $17.67 +2.6% | 43.3% | +40.2% | $17.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.59 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +206.0% | $6.74 +29.4% | 60.0% | +87.3% | $5.21 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +176.8% | $7.44 +29.2% | 46.7% | +80.2% | $5.76 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.59 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +129.7% | $8.88 +28.0% | 60.0% | +66.2% | $6.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.80 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +277.8% | $5.40 +27.9% | 40.0% | +99.3% | $4.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.59 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +146.0% | $8.14 +25.6% | 53.3% | +71.5% | $6.48 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.34 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +316.2% | $4.63 +20.9% | 44.0% | +100.4% | $3.83 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $2.89 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.10 | $5.01 +117.7% | $2.71 +17.8% | 45.3% | +37.3% | $2.30 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $5.01 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 3.3% $2.96 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $2.10 | $5.01 +122.5% | $2.64 +17.4% | 42.7% | +35.2% | $2.25 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Kintsugi  30.0% $10.25 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.15 | $35.39 +119.3% | $18.57 +15.1% | 40.0% | +71.5% | $16.14 | — |