The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.66
Bock Blocks
4x $1.53
Blush Pour
2x $1.53
Shredded
1x $1.80
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
Arsenic Spill
1x $2.24
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
16.7% $33.42
Electrum
10.0% $19.50
Glitched Paint
16.7% $17.17
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $16.98
Firebreathing
10.0% $12.97
Galigator
10.0% $11.37
Max Win
$33.42 (+94.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.66 (+2.7%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+44.9%
Cost
$17.19
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $17.19
Ask Price EV $17.66 (+2.7%)
Bid Price EV $16.74 (-2.6%)
Ask Profit $0.47 (+2.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.45 (-2.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.92 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.45
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $33.42 (+94.4%)
Worst Case $9.90 (-42.4%)
Volatility +44.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$11.01
Avg Loss -$3.37
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.90 (-42.4%)
Std Dev $7.72
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 144h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 40S //TOTAL COST $17.19 //ASK PRICE EV $17.66 //BID PRICE EV $16.74 //ASK PROFIT $0.47 (+2.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.45 (-2.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +44.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$33.42
+$16.23
+94.4%
$31.48
+$14.29
+83.1%
$1.94
5.8%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.50
+$2.31
+13.4%
$17.32
+$0.13
+0.8%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$17.17
-$0.03
-0.1%
$16.69
-$0.50
-2.9%
$0.47
2.8%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$16.98
-$0.21
-1.2%
$16.48
-$0.71
-4.1%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$12.97
-$4.22
-24.6%
$11.57
-$5.62
-32.7%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.37
-$5.82
-33.9%
$10.69
-$6.50
-37.8%
$0.68
6.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.24
-$6.95
-40.4%
$10.23
-$6.96
-40.5%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.90
-$7.29
-42.4%
$9.86
-$7.33
-42.6%
$0.04
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0468665,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.165,
"optimistic_value": 16.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:09.218821Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.370000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 11.3,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:53.281113Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.2405,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:00.785032Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 9.897,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:20.938989Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_edae1c1b7d752a32401c3e50",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "492724590626363049",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:40.662896Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "523123888072436950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857689862497968",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "630083017705272354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857637418052784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:07.106935Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:07.106935Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235389468941512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:01.907585Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:50.340812Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "528753387757738845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:02.101632Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.85 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +234.2% | $6.12 +28.2% | 50.0% | +92.2% | $4.77 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.32 | $33.42 +168.6% | $13.44 +8.0% | 50.0% | +77.3% | $12.44 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 16.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.99 Electrum 10.0% $2.61 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Firebreathing 10.0% $1.83 Galigator 10.0% $1.63 | $5.01 +99.5% | $2.55 +1.7% | 43.3% | +43.8% | $2.51 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 16.7% $5.01 Electrum 10.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.99 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.02 Galigator 10.0% $1.98 | $5.01 +89.6% | $2.66 +0.9% | 43.3% | +39.6% | $2.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +182.2% | $7.45 +31.8% | 70.0% | +81.4% | $5.65 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +290.7% | $5.37 +31.5% | 52.0% | +102.2% | $4.08 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.85 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +210.1% | $6.74 +31.1% | 60.0% | +88.2% | $5.14 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.85 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +151.8% | $8.24 +30.1% | 53.3% | +72.4% | $6.33 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.59 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +129.7% | $8.88 +28.0% | 60.0% | +66.2% | $6.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.80 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +310.9% | $4.69 +20.8% | 44.0% | +99.4% | $3.88 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $3.01 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.10 | $5.01 +120.6% | $2.72 +19.8% | 45.3% | +37.8% | $2.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $5.01 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 3.3% $2.99 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $2.10 | $5.01 +113.0% | $2.66 +13.1% | 42.7% | +33.5% | $2.35 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Kintsugi  30.0% $10.58 Deathgaze  30.0% $10.04 | $35.39 +117.1% | $18.94 +16.2% | 40.0% | +69.0% | $16.30 | — |