The Recoil Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Winterized
1x $0.29
Destroyer
1x $0.31
Roadblock
2x $0.31
Pipsqueak
3x $0.60
Teal Graf
3x $0.69
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
20.0% $10.69
Sweet Little Angels
20.0% $10.39
Monster Melt
20.0% $8.69
Flora Carnivora
8.0% $1.68
Crazy 8
8.0% $1.67
Dragon Tech
8.0% $1.21
Max Win
$10.69 (+80.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.50 (+10.0%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+71.9%
Cost
$5.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.91
Ask Price EV $6.50 (+10.0%)
Bid Price EV $6.32 (+7.0%)
Ask Profit $0.59 (+10.0%)
Bid Profit $0.41 (+7.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.41
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $10.69 (+80.9%)
Worst Case $1.11 (-81.2%)
Volatility +71.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.01
Avg Loss -$4.54
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.11 (-81.2%)
Std Dev $4.25
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 3h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 45S //TOTAL COST $5.91 //ASK PRICE EV $6.50 //BID PRICE EV $6.32 //ASK PROFIT $0.59 (+10.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.41 (+7.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $10.69 //VOLATILITY +71.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$10.69
+$4.78
+80.9%
$10.49
+$4.58
+77.5%
$0.20
1.9%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Minimal Wear | ƒ 0.1229508
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
20.0%
$10.39
+$4.48
+75.8%
$10.31
+$4.40
+74.5%
$0.08
0.8%
—
WIN
20.0%
$8.69
+$2.78
+47.0%
$8.23
+$2.32
+39.3%
$0.46
5.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$1.68
-$4.23
-71.6%
$1.61
-$4.30
-72.8%
$0.07
4.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$1.67
-$4.24
-71.8%
$1.63
-$4.28
-72.4%
$0.04
2.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.21
-$4.70
-79.5%
$1.12
-$4.79
-81.0%
$0.09
7.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.19
-$4.72
-79.9%
$1.08
-$4.83
-81.7%
$0.11
9.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.11
-$4.80
-81.2%
$1.03
-$4.88
-82.6%
$0.08
7.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.12744899999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 10.692,
"optimistic_value": 10.65,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 10.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:25.114951Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.12295079999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 10.392,
"optimistic_value": 10.35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 10.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:25.750345Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.112455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 8.687999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.52,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 8.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:12.922774Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 1.6784999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:22.421865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09746099999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.11,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:45.390152Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.10495799999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.1885,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:18.701965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.6675,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:16.234061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.10495799999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.213,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:42.516846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ed4bc27e6752b1c7ded75bed",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "526501587736163141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:08.157034Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "493850438107634608",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:48.713011Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "518620235869857460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:24.842380Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "525375522203724595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:24.842380Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:44.681290Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "498354089953419979",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:06.172759Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "523123835627757262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:06.172759Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "525374890942549699",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:44.681290Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "518619491421941344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:44.681290Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "516368488726379318",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:06.172759Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-overpass-2024:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.39 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.19 Downtown 8.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +120.0% | $6.36 +30.9% | 60.0% | +78.5% | $4.86 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.39 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.69 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.19 Downtown 10.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +155.2% | $5.47 +30.5% | 50.0% | +95.0% | $4.19 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.39 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.69 Dragon Tech 12.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 12.0% $1.19 Downtown 12.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +201.2% | $4.58 +29.0% | 40.0% | +112.4% | $3.55 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.69 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.31 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.11 | $10.49 +85.7% | $7.19 +27.2% | 70.0% | +60.7% | $5.65 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.39 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.19 Downtown 14.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +254.0% | $3.69 +22.1% | 30.0% | +126.4% | $3.02 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.39 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.69 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.19 Downtown 16.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +312.8% | $2.80 +8.0% | 20.0% | +131.4% | $2.59 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  10.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  10.0% $77.69 Ice Coaled  26.7% $12.10 Kiss♥Love  26.7% $9.34 Visions  26.7% $8.15 | $103.76 +345.9% | $26.04 +11.9% | 20.0% | +141.4% | $23.27 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  70.0% $1,312.69 Chromatic Aberration  15.0% $137.37 Printstream  15.0% $93.34 | $1,312.69 +64.0% | $953.49 +19.2% | 70.0% | +68.6% | $800.23 | — |