The Recoil Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Destroyer
3x $1.86
Wurst Hölle
3x $1.17
Metallic Squeezer
2x $2.33
Teal Graf
1x $2.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
20.0% $26.95
Sweet Little Angels
20.0% $25.66
Monster Melt
20.0% $20.38
Crazy 8
8.0% $10.92
Flora Carnivora
8.0% $10.54
Dragon Tech
8.0% $4.38
Max Win
$26.95 (+44.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.28 (-7.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+48.9%
Cost
$18.69
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.69
Ask Price EV $17.28 (-7.5%)
Bid Price EV $17.09 (-8.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.41 (-7.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.60 (-8.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+1.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.41
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.60
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.95 (+44.2%)
Worst Case $3.53 (-81.1%)
Volatility +48.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.64
Avg Loss -$11.98
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.53 (-81.1%)
Std Dev $9.15
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 70h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 15S //TOTAL COST $18.69 //ASK PRICE EV $17.28 //BID PRICE EV $17.09 //ASK PROFIT $-1.41 (-7.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.60 (-8.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.95 //VOLATILITY +48.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$26.95
+$8.26
+44.2%
$26.65
+$7.96
+42.6%
$0.30
1.1%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0570556
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
20.0%
$25.66
+$6.97
+37.3%
$25.62
+$6.93
+37.1%
$0.04
0.2%
—
SMALL WIN
20.0%
$20.38
+$1.69
+9.0%
$19.85
+$1.16
+6.2%
$0.53
2.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.92
-$7.77
-41.6%
$10.89
-$7.80
-41.7%
$0.03
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.54
-$8.15
-43.6%
$10.30
-$8.39
-44.9%
$0.23
2.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.38
-$14.31
-76.6%
$4.37
-$14.32
-76.6%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.20
-$14.49
-77.5%
$4.19
-$14.50
-77.6%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.53
-$15.16
-81.1%
$3.52
-$15.17
-81.2%
$0.01
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.059143,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 26.947499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 26.65,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:56.236095Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0570556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.052185,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.381,
"optimistic_value": 20.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:14.294463Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 10.535,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 10.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:20.116454Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.045227,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:34.829697Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048706,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:32.985971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 10.9175,
"optimistic_value": 10.9,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 10.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:16.112260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048706,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:11.334412Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ed4bc27e6752b1c7ded75bed",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:36.521324Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "630083017705289418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:26.519418Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "596305411434979669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:26.519418Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:26.519418Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:03.270196Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:03.270196Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "492724590626822841",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:49.532909Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "524249787960700827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:56.838809Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "494975741580158130",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:03.270196Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "523123888072619974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:49.532909Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-overpass-2024:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.39 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.19 Downtown 8.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +120.0% | $6.36 +30.9% | 60.0% | +78.5% | $4.86 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.39 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $1.68 Crazy 8 8.0% $1.67 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 | $10.69 +80.9% | $6.50 +10.0% | 60.0% | +62.1% | $5.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.39 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.69 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.19 Downtown 10.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +155.2% | $5.47 +30.5% | 50.0% | +95.0% | $4.19 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.39 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.69 Dragon Tech 12.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 12.0% $1.19 Downtown 12.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +201.2% | $4.58 +29.0% | 40.0% | +112.4% | $3.55 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.69 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.31 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.11 | $10.49 +85.7% | $7.19 +27.2% | 70.0% | +60.7% | $5.65 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.39 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.19 Downtown 14.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +254.0% | $3.69 +22.1% | 30.0% | +126.4% | $3.02 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.69 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.39 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.69 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.19 Downtown 16.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +312.8% | $2.80 +8.0% | 20.0% | +131.4% | $2.59 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  10.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  10.0% $77.69 Ice Coaled  26.7% $12.10 Kiss♥Love  26.7% $9.34 Visions  26.7% $8.15 | $103.76 +345.9% | $26.04 +11.9% | 20.0% | +141.4% | $23.27 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  70.0% $1,312.69 Chromatic Aberration  15.0% $137.37 Printstream  15.0% $93.34 | $1,312.69 +64.0% | $953.49 +19.2% | 70.0% | +68.6% | $800.23 | — |