The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Army Sheen
1x $5.67
Sleet
2x $0.04
Sleet
1x $0.05
Sans Comic
1x $0.07
Zinc
2x $0.08
Silver Pour
1x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Para Green
3.3% $186.52
Urban Rubble
3.3% $66.33
Night
3.3% $33.70
Aeolian Dark
18.0% $0.79
Dark Chamber
18.0% $0.43
Snow Splash
18.0% $0.35
Max Win
$186.52 (+2282.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.93 (+26.9%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+450.8%
Cost
$7.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.83
Ask Price EV $9.93 (+26.9%)
Bid Price EV $8.25 (+5.4%)
Ask Profit $2.10 (+26.9%)
Bid Profit $0.42 (+5.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.68 (+21.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.10
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $186.52 (+2282.1%)
Worst Case $0.27 (-96.6%)
Volatility +450.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$87.69
Avg Loss -$7.41
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.27 (-96.6%)
Std Dev $35.29
Avg Norm Float 0.0869
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 138h 18m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Army Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$5.67 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sleet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Sans Comic
—
Factory New
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Zinc
—
Factory New
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Bizoom
—
Factory New
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Dizzy
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Zinc
—
Factory New
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 31S //TOTAL COST $7.83 //ASK PRICE EV $9.93 //BID PRICE EV $8.25 //ASK PROFIT $2.10 (+26.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.42 (+5.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $186.52 //VOLATILITY +450.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$186.52
+$178.69
+2282.1%
$155.68
+$147.85
+1888.3%
$30.84
16.5%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
3.3%
$66.33
+$58.50
+747.1%
$49.07
+$41.24
+526.7%
$17.26
26.0%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$33.70
+$25.87
+330.4%
$32.43
+$24.60
+314.2%
$1.27
3.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.79
-$7.04
-89.9%
$0.69
-$7.14
-91.2%
$0.10
12.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$0.43
-$7.40
-94.5%
$0.41
-$7.42
-94.8%
$0.02
4.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.35
-$7.48
-95.6%
$0.31
-$7.52
-96.0%
$0.04
10.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.29
-$7.54
-96.3%
$0.28
-$7.55
-96.4%
$0.01
3.4%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.27
-$7.56
-96.6%
$0.24
-$7.59
-96.9%
$0.03
11.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-chopshop|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.052116,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"realistic_value": 0.29,
"optimistic_value": 0.29,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"conservative_value": 0.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:58:15.226157Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.05645900000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:20:45.657552Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.052116,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"realistic_value": 0.34700000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.34,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:02.703286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.052116,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"realistic_value": 0.27,
"optimistic_value": 0.27,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:25:13.053871Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06978245540000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:46:03.207599Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1242764,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07884f77d452",
"realistic_value": 33.7,
"optimistic_value": 33,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night",
"conservative_value": 32.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:49.361605Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07884f77d452.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ee7b966c7ea7",
"realistic_value": 66.331,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 49.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:46.237650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee7b966c7ea7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06948800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78d3855fd66e",
"realistic_value": 186.517,
"optimistic_value": 180,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Para Green",
"conservative_value": 155.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:36.519701Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78d3855fd66e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ed30726599ed66a7e8fe896e",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.67,
"skin_id": "skin-51c3ca06a247",
"listing_id": "493850438107468792",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Army Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-51c3ca06a247.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:31.950502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "506235337026157692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:49:43.666223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-1f71b62e4990",
"listing_id": "501731624157508073",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sleet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1f71b62e4990.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:40.231862Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-158373106a93",
"listing_id": "509613089304167319",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Sans Comic (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Sans Comic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-158373106a93.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:09:03.725753Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-493c652caf29",
"listing_id": "529879287550700280",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-493c652caf29.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:58:40.550522Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "528753387756937125",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:02:59.291151Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "520872088106022828",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:11.102253Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-66a37bb94450",
"listing_id": "528753221919057513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-66a37bb94450.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:01:26.695345Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fd612b65c748",
"listing_id": "505109323867434440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Dizzy (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Dizzy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fd612b65c748.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:16.221984Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-493c652caf29",
"listing_id": "507361289451880825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-493c652caf29.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:58:40.550522Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-chopshop:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New | Para Green 3.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 3.3% $66.33 Night 3.3% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 18.0% $0.79 Dark Chamber 18.0% $0.43 Snow Splash 18.0% $0.35 | $186.52 +2021.9% | $9.93 +13.0% | 10.0% | +396.1% | $8.79 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 6.7% $186.52 Urban Rubble 6.7% $66.33 Night 6.7% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 16.0% $0.79 Dark Chamber 16.0% $0.43 Snow Splash 16.0% $0.36 | $186.52 +1042.2% | $19.44 +19.1% | 20.0% | +286.8% | $16.33 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 13.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 13.3% $66.33 Night 13.3% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 12.0% $0.79 Snow Splash 12.0% $0.35 Vendetta 12.0% $0.29 | $186.52 +437.7% | $38.42 +10.8% | 26.7% | +171.7% | $34.69 | — |