The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Impact Drill
1x $3.87
Zinc
2x $0.03
Currents
2x $0.03
Sleet
1x $0.04
Sleet
1x $0.05
Sans Comic
1x $0.10
↓
Possible Outputs
Para Green
3.3% $19.57
Night
3.3% $18.33
Urban Rubble
3.3% $18.32
Snow Splash
18.0% $0.12
Aeolian Dark
18.0% $0.11
Snow Splash
18.0% $0.09
Max Win
$19.57 (+327.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.96 (-57.1%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+122.2%
Cost
$4.58
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.58
Ask Price EV $1.96 (-57.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.64 (-64.1%)
Ask Profit $-2.62 (-57.1%)
Bid Profit $-2.94 (-64.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+7.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.62
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.94
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $19.57 (+327.3%)
Worst Case $0.08 (-98.2%)
Volatility +122.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$14.16
Avg Loss -$4.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.08 (-98.2%)
Std Dev $5.59
Avg Norm Float 0.1650
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 139h 19m
Oldest Output Price 140h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Impact Drill
—
Battle-Scarred
$3.87 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Zinc
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Currents
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Currents
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sleet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Zinc
—
Factory New
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Sans Comic
—
Factory New
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 00S //TOTAL COST $4.58 //ASK PRICE EV $1.96 //BID PRICE EV $1.64 //ASK PROFIT $-2.62 (-57.1%) //BID PROFIT $-2.94 (-64.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $19.57 //VOLATILITY +122.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$19.57
+$14.99
+327.3%
$18.59
+$14.01
+305.9%
$0.98
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$18.33
+$13.75
+300.3%
$16.53
+$11.95
+260.9%
$1.80
9.8%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
3.3%
$18.32
+$13.74
+299.9%
$12.00
+$7.42
+162.0%
$6.32
34.5%
—
NUKE THIN BID
18.0%
$0.12
-$4.46
-97.4%
$0.08
-$4.50
-98.3%
$0.04
33.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.11
-$4.47
-97.5%
$0.10
-$4.48
-97.8%
$0.01
11.9%
—
NUKE THIN BID
18.0%
$0.09
-$4.49
-98.0%
$0.07
-$4.51
-98.5%
$0.02
25.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.09
-$4.49
-98.0%
$0.08
-$4.50
-98.3%
$0.01
11.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.08
-$4.50
-98.2%
$0.07
-$4.51
-98.5%
$0.01
16.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-chopshop|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.099,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"realistic_value": 0.0835,
"optimistic_value": 0.08,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"conservative_value": 0.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:00:17.438862Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.10725000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"realistic_value": 0.1135,
"optimistic_value": 0.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:25:06.080347Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.099,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"realistic_value": 0.12,
"optimistic_value": 0.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:30:44.510239Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.099,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"realistic_value": 0.0935,
"optimistic_value": 0.09,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:46.684261Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.13255935000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"realistic_value": 0.09,
"optimistic_value": 0.09,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"conservative_value": 0.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:10.968845Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.18209999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07884f77d452",
"realistic_value": 18.332,
"optimistic_value": 18.01,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night",
"conservative_value": 16.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:59:28.290339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07884f77d452.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ee7b966c7ea7",
"realistic_value": 18.316,
"optimistic_value": 17.63,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:45.077127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee7b966c7ea7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.132,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78d3855fd66e",
"realistic_value": 19.57,
"optimistic_value": 18.8,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Para Green",
"conservative_value": 18.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Para Green (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:34.332159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78d3855fd66e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ed30726599ed66a7e8fe896e",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.87,
"skin_id": "skin-ee71937714b6",
"listing_id": "502856892568442512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Impact Drill (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "M249 | Impact Drill",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee71937714b6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:41.626663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-493c652caf29",
"listing_id": "509613036860964423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-493c652caf29.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:42.276289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-18a19585ed8f",
"listing_id": "521997988015407606",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Currents (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Currents",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18a19585ed8f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:15.577795Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-18a19585ed8f",
"listing_id": "508487023591291334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Currents (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Currents",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18a19585ed8f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:15.577795Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "506235337026157692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:14.384232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-1f71b62e4990",
"listing_id": "501731624157508073",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sleet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1f71b62e4990.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:11.603728Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-493c652caf29",
"listing_id": "525375688036706551",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-493c652caf29.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:44.052062Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-158373106a93",
"listing_id": "518620235869233868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Sans Comic (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Sans Comic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-158373106a93.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:47.134655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "520871922576669300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:13.611690Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "520872088106022828",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:13.611690Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-chopshop:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 3.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 3.3% $66.33 Night 3.3% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 18.0% $0.73 Dark Chamber 18.0% $0.43 Snow Splash 18.0% $0.33 | $186.52 +2261.0% | $9.92 +25.6% | 10.0% | +440.8% | $7.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 6.7% $186.52 Urban Rubble 6.7% $66.33 Night 6.7% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 16.0% $0.77 Dark Chamber 16.0% $0.43 Snow Splash 16.0% $0.35 | $186.52 +1047.8% | $19.44 +19.6% | 20.0% | +288.2% | $16.25 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 13.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 13.3% $66.33 Night 13.3% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 12.0% $0.73 Snow Splash 12.0% $0.33 Vendetta 12.0% $0.29 | $186.52 +438.1% | $38.41 +10.8% | 26.7% | +171.9% | $34.66 | — |