The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New
Inputs
Seabird
1x $7.76
Currents
1x $0.03
Sleet
1x $0.04
Zinc
2x $0.07
Sans Comic
1x $0.10
Silver Pour
2x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Para Green
3.3% $186.52
Urban Rubble
3.3% $66.33
Night
3.3% $33.70
Aeolian Dark
18.0% $0.73
Dark Chamber
18.0% $0.43
Snow Splash
18.0% $0.33
Max Win
$186.52 (+1765.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.92 (-0.8%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+353.0%
Cost
$10.00
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.00
Ask Price EV $9.92 (-0.8%)
Bid Price EV $8.26 (-17.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.08 (-0.8%)
Bid Profit $-1.74 (-17.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.66 (+16.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.08
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.74
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $186.52 (+1765.2%)
Worst Case $0.26 (-97.4%)
Volatility +353.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$85.52
Avg Loss -$9.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.26 (-97.4%)
Std Dev $35.30
Avg Norm Float 0.0683
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 139h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Seabird
—
Field-Tested
$7.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Currents
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Sleet
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Zinc
—
Factory New
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Sans Comic
—
Factory New
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Silver Pour
—
Factory New
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Bizoom
—
Factory New
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Dizzy
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Zinc
—
Factory New
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 49S //TOTAL COST $10.00 //ASK PRICE EV $9.92 //BID PRICE EV $8.26 //ASK PROFIT $-0.08 (-0.8%) //BID PROFIT $-1.74 (-17.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $186.52 //VOLATILITY +353.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$186.52
+$176.52
+1765.2%
$155.68
+$145.68
+1456.8%
$30.84
16.5%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
3.3%
$66.33
+$56.33
+563.3%
$49.07
+$39.07
+390.7%
$17.26
26.0%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$33.70
+$23.70
+237.0%
$32.43
+$22.43
+224.3%
$1.27
3.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.73
-$9.27
-92.7%
$0.69
-$9.31
-93.1%
$0.04
5.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.43
-$9.57
-95.7%
$0.42
-$9.58
-95.8%
$0.01
2.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.33
-$9.67
-96.7%
$0.31
-$9.69
-96.9%
$0.02
7.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.29
-$9.71
-97.1%
$0.28
-$9.72
-97.2%
$0.01
3.4%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.26
-$9.74
-97.4%
$0.24
-$9.76
-97.6%
$0.02
6.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-chopshop|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.040992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"realistic_value": 0.29,
"optimistic_value": 0.29,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"conservative_value": 0.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:31.741939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.044408,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"realistic_value": 0.731,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:03.918113Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.040992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"realistic_value": 0.334,
"optimistic_value": 0.32,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:11.434504Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.040992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"realistic_value": 0.257,
"optimistic_value": 0.25,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"conservative_value": 0.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:03.616464Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.05488760480000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:40.060119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11055680000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07884f77d452",
"realistic_value": 33.7,
"optimistic_value": 33,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night",
"conservative_value": 32.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:49.361605Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07884f77d452.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03416,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ee7b966c7ea7",
"realistic_value": 66.331,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 49.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:46.237650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee7b966c7ea7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.05465600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78d3855fd66e",
"realistic_value": 186.517,
"optimistic_value": 180,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Para Green",
"conservative_value": 155.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:36.519701Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78d3855fd66e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ed30726599ed66a7e8fe896e",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 7.76,
"skin_id": "skin-5e738163a3b5",
"listing_id": "494976224707364790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Seabird (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Seabird",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5e738163a3b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:39.329209Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-18a19585ed8f",
"listing_id": "521997988015407606",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Currents (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Currents",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18a19585ed8f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:15.577795Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-81cd69f7a061",
"listing_id": "506235337026157692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Sleet (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Sleet",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-81cd69f7a061.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:14.384232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-493c652caf29",
"listing_id": "525375688036706551",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-493c652caf29.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:44.052062Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-158373106a93",
"listing_id": "518620235869233868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Sans Comic (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Sans Comic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-158373106a93.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:47.134655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "520871922576669300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:13.611690Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-6e77ad6f522c",
"listing_id": "520872088106022828",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Silver Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e77ad6f522c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:13.611690Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-66a37bb94450",
"listing_id": "528753221919057513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Bizoom",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-66a37bb94450.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:34.744223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fd612b65c748",
"listing_id": "505109323867434440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Dizzy (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Dizzy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fd612b65c748.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:54.141437Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-493c652caf29",
"listing_id": "507361289451880825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Zinc",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-493c652caf29.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:44.052062Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-chopshop:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 3.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 3.3% $66.33 Night 3.3% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 18.0% $0.73 Dark Chamber 18.0% $0.43 Snow Splash 18.0% $0.33 | $186.52 +2261.0% | $9.92 +25.6% | 10.0% | +440.8% | $7.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 6.7% $186.52 Urban Rubble 6.7% $66.33 Night 6.7% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 16.0% $0.77 Dark Chamber 16.0% $0.43 Snow Splash 16.0% $0.35 | $186.52 +1047.8% | $19.44 +19.6% | 20.0% | +288.2% | $16.25 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 13.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 13.3% $66.33 Night 13.3% $33.70 Aeolian Dark 12.0% $0.73 Snow Splash 12.0% $0.33 Vendetta 12.0% $0.29 | $186.52 +438.1% | $38.41 +10.8% | 26.7% | +171.9% | $34.66 | — |