The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Atlas
2x $0.76
Fragment
1x $0.41
Bock Blocks
5x $0.49
Fusion
2x $0.72
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
16.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
16.0% $10.78
Ghost Crusader
4.0% $10.42
Re-Entry
4.0% $10.16
Black Tie
4.0% $8.33
Firefight
4.0% $6.82
Max Win
$16.94 (+121.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.73 (+14.0%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+54.4%
Cost
$7.66
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $7.66
Ask Price EV $8.73 (+14.0%)
Bid Price EV $7.38 (-3.6%)
Ask Profit $1.07 (+14.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.28 (-3.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.35 (+17.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.28
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $16.94 (+121.1%)
Worst Case $4.07 (-46.9%)
Volatility +54.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$5.05
Avg Loss -$2.05
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.01 (-34.6%)
Std Dev $4.17
Avg Norm Float 0.1490
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 150h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 40S //TOTAL COST $7.66 //ASK PRICE EV $8.73 //BID PRICE EV $7.38 //ASK PROFIT $1.07 (+14.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.28 (-3.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +54.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$16.94
+$9.28
+121.1%
$14.31
+$6.65
+86.8%
$2.63
15.5%
—
WIN
16.0%
$10.78
+$3.12
+40.7%
$9.15
+$1.49
+19.5%
$1.63
15.1%
—
WIN
4.0%
$10.42
+$2.76
+36.0%
$9.69
+$2.03
+26.5%
$0.73
7.0%
—
WIN
4.0%
$10.16
+$2.50
+32.6%
$8.63
+$0.97
+12.7%
$1.53
15.0%
—
PAPER WIN
4.0%
$8.33
+$0.67
+8.7%
$6.87
-$0.79
-10.3%
$1.46
17.5%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$6.82
-$0.84
-10.9%
$5.52
-$2.14
-27.9%
$1.30
19.1%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$6.18
-$1.48
-19.3%
$4.92
-$2.74
-35.8%
$1.26
20.4%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$5.73
-$1.93
-25.2%
$4.91
-$2.75
-35.9%
$0.82
14.3%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$5.01
-$2.65
-34.6%
$4.26
-$3.40
-44.4%
$0.75
14.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.07
-$3.59
-46.9%
$3.70
-$3.96
-51.7%
$0.37
9.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.149,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.149,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.729,
"optimistic_value": 5.68,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:39.238465Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.149,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.149,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 6.18,
"optimistic_value": 6.18,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:06.775624Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.149,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 5.006,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:40.300365Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.149,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 4.0665000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 3.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:59.883056Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.149,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 6.824,
"optimistic_value": 6.81,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 5.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:17:28.696002Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.149,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 10.4185,
"optimistic_value": 10.24,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T14:57:12.762479Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06407,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 10.1575,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 8.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.855036Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.11174999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 8.329,
"optimistic_value": 8.14,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 6.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.718736Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ecbd0a813b3ada0251f1050b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "492724538181168633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Atlas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:20.803067Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "516368436280195262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Atlas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:20.803067Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "521998040962761918",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:07.412620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "524249735517574827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "510739041954246190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:56.309444Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885184271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:27.985841Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "523123722383769418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:56.309444Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "528753335314230633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:27.985841Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983423969275595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:27.985841Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-12:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 4.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Firefight 4.0% $23.12 Black Tie 4.0% $20.99 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +160.3% | $24.97 +26.8% | 44.0% | +58.4% | $19.70 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Re-Entry 4.0% $4.88 Ghost Crusader 4.0% $3.69 Galigator 16.0% $3.56 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $2.91 | $10.69 +145.3% | $4.83 +10.8% | 36.0% | +59.2% | $4.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 2.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Firefight 2.0% $23.12 Black Tie 2.0% $20.99 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +158.2% | $25.57 +28.8% | 42.0% | +59.1% | $19.86 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 6.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Firefight 6.0% $23.12 Black Tie 6.0% $20.99 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +155.7% | $24.65 +22.9% | 46.0% | +55.6% | $20.05 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 8.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Firefight 8.0% $23.12 Black Tie 8.0% $20.99 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +153.8% | $24.19 +19.8% | 48.0% | +53.5% | $20.20 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Ghost Crusader 10.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 10.0% $10.16 Black Tie 10.0% $8.33 Firefight 10.0% $6.82 | $16.94 +131.1% | $8.44 +15.2% | 50.0% | +40.3% | $7.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi  30.0% $61.06 Deathgaze  30.0% $59.23 Fleet Flock  3.3% $54.83 Primal Saber  3.3% $42.10 Asiimov  3.3% $19.43 | $290.04 +184.3% | $126.98 +24.5% | 30.0% | +104.9% | $102.02 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chantico's Fire  15.0% $214.02 Judgement of Anubis  15.0% $177.46 Queen's Gambit  35.0% $141.08 Fully Tuned  35.0% $105.54 | $214.02 +86.0% | $145.04 +26.0% | 65.0% | +32.8% | $115.09 | — |