The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Fubar
2x $0.26
RMX
2x $0.34
Fusion
2x $0.40
Fragment
1x $0.41
Bock Blocks
3x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
16.0% $10.69
Firebreathing
16.0% $6.12
Re-Entry
4.0% $4.88
Ghost Crusader
4.0% $3.69
Galigator
16.0% $3.56
Urban Sovereign
16.0% $2.91
Max Win
$10.69 (+145.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.83 (+10.8%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+64.5%
Cost
$4.36
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $4.36
Ask Price EV $4.83 (+10.8%)
Bid Price EV $4.07 (-6.6%)
Ask Profit $0.47 (+10.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.29 (-6.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.76 (+17.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.29
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $10.69 (+145.3%)
Worst Case $2.35 (-46.0%)
Volatility +64.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 44.0%
Avg Win +$3.65
Avg Loss -$1.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.62 (-39.8%)
Std Dev $2.81
Avg Norm Float 0.2965
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 150h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 08S //TOTAL COST $4.36 //ASK PRICE EV $4.83 //BID PRICE EV $4.07 //ASK PROFIT $0.47 (+10.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.29 (-6.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $10.69 //VOLATILITY +64.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$10.69
+$6.33
+145.3%
$9.15
+$4.79
+109.9%
$1.54
14.4%
—
WIN
16.0%
$6.12
+$1.76
+40.3%
$4.98
+$0.62
+14.2%
$1.14
18.6%
—
PAPER WIN
4.0%
$4.88
+$0.52
+11.9%
$3.86
-$0.50
-11.5%
$1.02
20.9%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$3.69
-$0.67
-15.4%
$3.57
-$0.79
-18.1%
$0.12
3.2%
—
LOSS THIN BID
16.0%
$3.56
-$0.80
-18.4%
$2.66
-$1.70
-39.0%
$0.90
25.2%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.91
-$1.45
-33.3%
$2.61
-$1.75
-40.1%
$0.30
10.2%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.88
-$1.48
-33.9%
$2.61
-$1.75
-40.1%
$0.27
9.5%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.63
-$1.73
-39.7%
$2.27
-$2.09
-47.9%
$0.36
13.6%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.62
-$1.74
-39.8%
$2.10
-$2.26
-51.8%
$0.52
20.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.35
-$2.01
-46.0%
$1.96
-$2.40
-55.0%
$0.39
16.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 6.117,
"optimistic_value": 6.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 4.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.545500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.558,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:47.006585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 10.693000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.376233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.8835,
"optimistic_value": 2.88,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:54.067411Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.29648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 2.908,
"optimistic_value": 2.88,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:53:01.665734Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.29648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 2.3539999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.34,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 1.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:45.896983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.29648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 2.6275,
"optimistic_value": 2.61,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 2.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:50:03.527256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.29648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 3.6865,
"optimistic_value": 3.62,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 3.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:41.691881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.1274864,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 4.8775,
"optimistic_value": 4.86,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:29.292943Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.22236,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 2.6245,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T21:29:17.584411Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ecbd0a813b3ada0251f1050b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "494976390475664250",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:04.350451Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "508487242221706934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:04.350451Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "510739041953589082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:45.394848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "526501587737943665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:45.394848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "520872141038016156",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:07:50.517293Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "521998040962761918",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:07.412620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "519746241188751776",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "524249735517574827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "510739041954246190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:56.309444Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-12:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 4.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Firefight 4.0% $23.12 Black Tie 4.0% $20.99 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +160.3% | $24.97 +26.8% | 44.0% | +58.4% | $19.70 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 16.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 16.0% $10.78 Ghost Crusader 4.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 4.0% $10.16 Black Tie 4.0% $8.33 Firefight 4.0% $6.82 | $16.94 +121.1% | $8.73 +14.0% | 44.0% | +44.8% | $7.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 2.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Firefight 2.0% $23.12 Black Tie 2.0% $20.99 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +158.2% | $25.57 +28.8% | 42.0% | +59.1% | $19.86 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 6.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Firefight 6.0% $23.12 Black Tie 6.0% $20.99 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +155.7% | $24.65 +22.9% | 46.0% | +55.6% | $20.05 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 8.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Firefight 8.0% $23.12 Black Tie 8.0% $20.99 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +153.8% | $24.19 +19.8% | 48.0% | +53.5% | $20.20 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Ghost Crusader 10.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 10.0% $10.16 Black Tie 10.0% $8.33 Firefight 10.0% $6.82 | $16.94 +131.1% | $8.44 +15.2% | 50.0% | +40.3% | $7.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi  30.0% $61.06 Deathgaze  30.0% $59.23 Fleet Flock  3.3% $54.83 Primal Saber  3.3% $42.10 Asiimov  3.3% $19.43 | $290.04 +184.3% | $126.98 +24.5% | 30.0% | +104.9% | $102.02 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chantico's Fire  15.0% $214.02 Judgement of Anubis  15.0% $177.46 Queen's Gambit  35.0% $141.08 Fully Tuned  35.0% $105.54 | $214.02 +86.0% | $145.04 +26.0% | 65.0% | +32.8% | $115.09 | — |