The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Atlas
1x $0.93
Spectre
1x $1.51
Fusion
3x $0.72
Bock Blocks
5x $0.78
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
16.0% $51.27
Ghost Crusader
4.0% $39.11
Firebreathing
16.0% $31.66
Firefight
4.0% $23.12
Black Tie
4.0% $20.99
Amberline
16.0% $18.87
Max Win
$51.27 (+162.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.11 (+28.5%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+69.4%
Cost
$19.54
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.54
Ask Price EV $25.11 (+28.5%)
Bid Price EV $21.19 (+8.4%)
Ask Profit $5.57 (+28.5%)
Bid Profit $1.65 (+8.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.92 (+20.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.57
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.65
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $51.27 (+162.4%)
Worst Case $10.16 (-48.0%)
Volatility +69.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$18.18
Avg Loss -$4.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.77 (-29.5%)
Std Dev $13.55
Avg Norm Float 0.0693
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 149h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Spectre
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.45 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.46 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.56 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 29S //TOTAL COST $19.54 //ASK PRICE EV $25.11 //BID PRICE EV $21.19 //ASK PROFIT $5.57 (+28.5%) //BID PROFIT $1.65 (+8.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +69.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$51.27
+$31.73
+162.4%
$43.51
+$23.97
+122.7%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$39.11
+$19.57
+100.2%
$29.99
+$10.45
+53.5%
$9.12
23.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$31.66
+$12.12
+62.0%
$29.45
+$9.91
+50.7%
$2.21
7.0%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$23.12
+$3.58
+18.3%
$17.75
-$1.79
-9.2%
$5.37
23.2%
—
PAPER WIN
4.0%
$20.99
+$1.44
+7.4%
$18.87
-$0.67
-3.4%
$2.11
10.1%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$18.87
-$0.67
-3.4%
$12.97
-$6.57
-33.6%
$5.90
31.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$14.51
-$5.03
-25.7%
$13.05
-$6.49
-33.2%
$1.46
10.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$13.85
-$5.69
-29.1%
$11.82
-$7.72
-39.5%
$2.03
14.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$13.77
-$5.77
-29.5%
$11.22
-$8.32
-42.6%
$2.55
18.5%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$10.16
-$9.38
-48.0%
$8.63
-$10.91
-55.8%
$1.53
15.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.847,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:38:58.442110Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 13.769,
"optimistic_value": 13.58,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 11.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:11.743651Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 23.12,
"optimistic_value": 20.32,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 17.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:36.537583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 39.112,
"optimistic_value": 38.65,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 29.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:19.579903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.029790399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 10.1575,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 8.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.855036Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.05195999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 20.985,
"optimistic_value": 19.9,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 18.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:35.190927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ecbd0a813b3ada0251f1050b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "516368436280195262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Atlas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:06.954990Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-fc1505f10422",
"listing_id": "493849693292796664",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Spectre (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Spectre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fc1505f10422.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:39.939960Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "491598743580610550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.255064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885184271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:51.791007Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "511864941881504697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:27.559352Z"
},
{
"price": 2.45,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "506235442367257236",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:46.570196Z"
},
{
"price": 2.46,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "506235389470490196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:46.570196Z"
},
{
"price": 2.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613089304746343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:27.559352Z"
},
{
"price": 2.56,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "500605889842157771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:27.559352Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "518620122758487316",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:27.559352Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-12:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Re-Entry 4.0% $4.88 Ghost Crusader 4.0% $3.69 Galigator 16.0% $3.50 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $2.94 | $10.69 +165.3% | $4.83 +19.8% | 36.0% | +64.1% | $4.03 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 16.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 16.0% $10.78 Ghost Crusader 4.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 4.0% $10.16 Black Tie 4.0% $8.33 Firefight 4.0% $6.82 | $16.94 +123.7% | $8.76 +15.7% | 44.0% | +45.2% | $7.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 2.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Firefight 2.0% $23.12 Black Tie 2.0% $20.99 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +161.9% | $25.57 +30.6% | 42.0% | +60.0% | $19.58 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 6.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Firefight 6.0% $23.12 Black Tie 6.0% $20.99 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +161.9% | $24.65 +25.9% | 46.0% | +56.9% | $19.58 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Ghost Crusader 8.0% $39.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Firefight 8.0% $23.12 Black Tie 8.0% $20.99 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 | $51.27 +153.3% | $24.19 +19.5% | 48.0% | +53.4% | $20.24 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Ghost Crusader 10.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 10.0% $10.16 Black Tie 10.0% $8.33 Firefight 10.0% $6.82 | $16.94 +137.9% | $8.44 +18.6% | 50.0% | +41.4% | $7.12 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi  30.0% $61.06 Deathgaze  30.0% $59.23 Fleet Flock  3.3% $54.83 Primal Saber  3.3% $42.10 Asiimov  3.3% $19.43 | $290.04 +186.3% | $126.98 +25.3% | 30.0% | +105.7% | $101.31 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chantico's Fire  15.0% $214.02 Judgement of Anubis  15.0% $177.46 Queen's Gambit  35.0% $141.08 Fully Tuned  35.0% $105.54 | $214.02 +86.1% | $145.04 +26.1% | 65.0% | +32.8% | $115.03 | — |