The Genesis Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Red Wing
3x $0.40
MAGnitude
1x $0.66
Caged
3x $0.74
Fusion
2x $0.40
Fragment
1x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Liquidation
14.0% $21.44
Electrum
6.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
6.0% $10.78
Amberline
6.0% $6.11
Galigator
6.0% $5.30
Urban Sovereign
6.0% $4.90
Max Win
$21.44 (+231.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.91 (+22.5%)
Win %
26.0%
Volatility
+98.5%
Cost
$6.46
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.46
Ask Price EV $7.91 (+22.5%)
Bid Price EV $6.94 (+7.5%)
Ask Profit $1.45 (+22.5%)
Bid Profit $0.48 (+7.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.97 (+15.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.45
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.48
Risk
Win Probability 26.0%
Loss Probability 74.0%
Best Case $21.44 (+231.9%)
Worst Case $3.89 (-39.7%)
Volatility +98.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.0%
Avg Win +$11.48
Avg Loss -$2.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.89 (-39.7%)
Std Dev $6.36
Avg Norm Float 0.1500
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 153h 36m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 39S //TOTAL COST $6.46 //ASK PRICE EV $7.91 //BID PRICE EV $6.94 //ASK PROFIT $1.45 (+22.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.48 (+7.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.0% //BEST CASE $21.44 //VOLATILITY +98.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$21.44
+$14.98
+231.9%
$18.66
+$12.20
+188.9%
$2.78
13.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$16.94
+$10.48
+162.2%
$14.31
+$7.85
+121.5%
$2.63
15.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.78
+$4.32
+66.8%
$9.15
+$2.69
+41.6%
$1.63
15.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.11
-$0.35
-5.4%
$4.92
-$1.54
-23.8%
$1.19
19.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$5.30
-$1.16
-18.0%
$4.91
-$1.55
-24.0%
$0.39
7.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$4.90
-$1.56
-24.2%
$4.26
-$2.20
-34.1%
$0.64
13.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$4.21
-$2.25
-34.9%
$3.72
-$2.74
-42.4%
$0.49
11.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$4.11
-$2.35
-36.4%
$3.83
-$2.63
-40.7%
$0.28
6.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$4.01
-$2.45
-37.9%
$3.63
-$2.83
-43.8%
$0.38
9.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$3.89
-$2.57
-39.7%
$3.65
-$2.81
-43.5%
$0.24
6.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 4.2055,
"optimistic_value": 4.09,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 3.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:16:32.226410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 21.439,
"optimistic_value": 21.32,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 18.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:31.788316Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 4.106,
"optimistic_value": 3.98,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 3.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:14.436781Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 3.8939999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.88,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:22.317044Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 4.0135000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 3.94,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 3.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:32:46.868232Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.2965,
"optimistic_value": 5.09,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:47.589758Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 6.1085,
"optimistic_value": 6.07,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:56.544986Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 4.8955,
"optimistic_value": 4.85,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:34:46.609051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ebea8dd282780e84ca3103f3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "496102290329494463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:17.951005Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "509613142168300791",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:15.227201Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "509613142168246287",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:42.742400Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "619949307133540327",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:15.227201Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "529879287551137428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:00.772559Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "509612923503326559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:00.772559Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "509613142167317703",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:00.772559Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "527627540538356672",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:33.459438Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "521998040963095890",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:50.132714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "510739041954246190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:20.082689Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-community-37:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Liquidation 14.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +214.8% | $20.07 +23.2% | 32.0% | +79.2% | $16.29 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 14.0% $11.18 Electrum 6.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 6.0% $6.12 Galigator 6.0% $3.49 Amberline 6.0% $2.88 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $2.85 | $11.18 +205.6% | $4.28 +17.0% | 26.0% | +84.7% | $3.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Liquidation 2.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +166.5% | $25.18 +30.9% | 38.0% | +71.6% | $19.24 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Liquidation 8.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +196.0% | $22.62 +30.6% | 44.0% | +75.6% | $17.32 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Liquidation 6.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +183.6% | $23.48 +29.8% | 48.0% | +73.3% | $18.08 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 12.0% $11.18 Electrum 8.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 8.0% $6.12 Galigator 8.0% $3.49 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $2.90 Amberline 8.0% $2.88 | $11.18 +225.1% | $4.42 +28.4% | 36.0% | +88.7% | $3.44 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Liquidation 10.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +201.3% | $21.76 +27.8% | 40.0% | +76.4% | $17.02 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Liquidation 4.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +168.0% | $24.33 +27.2% | 36.0% | +70.5% | $19.13 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 16.0% $11.18 Electrum 4.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 4.0% $6.12 Galigator 4.0% $3.49 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $2.90 Amberline 4.0% $2.88 | $11.18 +233.9% | $4.15 +23.9% | 28.0% | +94.1% | $3.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 2.0% $51.27 Liquidation 18.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 2.0% $31.66 Amberline 2.0% $18.87 Galigator 2.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +219.5% | $18.36 +14.4% | 24.0% | +80.1% | $16.05 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Ice Coaled  3.3% $115.81 Smoking Kills  3.3% $98.16 Mirror Mosaic  3.3% $88.96 Kintsugi  30.0% $60.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $58.59 | $290.04 +190.2% | $132.82 +32.9% | 33.3% | +103.8% | $99.93 | — |