The Genesis Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Focus
1x $1.34
Broken Record
2x $1.35
Red Wing
3x $1.45
Bullfrog
1x $1.50
VariCamo Blue
2x $17.06
Nitro
1x $21.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Pink DDPAT
15.0% $135.49
Road Rash
15.0% $124.10
Liquidation
14.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
14.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
14.0% $2.14
Ocular
14.0% $2.05
Max Win
$135.49 (+90.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$41.20 (-42.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+81.7%
Cost
$71.14
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $71.14
Ask Price EV $41.20 (-42.1%)
Bid Price EV $35.83 (-49.6%)
Ask Profit $-29.94 (-42.1%)
Bid Profit $-35.31 (-49.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $5.37 (+7.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$29.94
Bid Slippage Buffer -$35.31
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $135.49 (+90.5%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-97.2%)
Volatility +81.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$58.65
Avg Loss -$67.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-97.2%)
Std Dev $58.11
Avg Norm Float 0.1215
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 144h 10m
Oldest Output Price 143h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$2.61 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$2.67 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$17.06 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$21.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 05M 42S //TOTAL COST $71.14 //ASK PRICE EV $41.20 //BID PRICE EV $35.83 //ASK PROFIT $-29.94 (-42.1%) //BID PROFIT $-35.31 (-49.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $135.49 //VOLATILITY +81.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$135.49
+$64.35
+90.5%
$116.22
+$45.08
+63.4%
$19.27
14.2%
—
BIG WIN
15.0%
$124.10
+$52.96
+74.4%
$108.84
+$37.70
+53.0%
$15.25
12.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$7.67
-$63.47
-89.2%
$6.71
-$64.43
-90.6%
$0.96
12.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.29
-$68.85
-96.8%
$2.04
-$69.10
-97.1%
$0.25
11.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.14
-$69.00
-97.0%
$2.03
-$69.11
-97.1%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.05
-$69.09
-97.1%
$2.03
-$69.11
-97.1%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.00
-$69.14
-97.2%
$1.99
-$69.15
-97.2%
$0.01
0.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.14991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 135.48850000000002,
"optimistic_value": 127.68,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 116.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:19.544360Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 124.095,
"optimistic_value": 120,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 108.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:13:15.597816Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.14,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:14.209575Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.667,
"optimistic_value": 7.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.2944999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:30:11.492522Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.0505,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:53.852430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:18.604881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ebccb20de34225b081609ff5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "519746188258177352",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:47.080684Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "490472790736724379",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:08.783936Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "498354089953558939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:15.259165Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "524249787961760595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:34.435847Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "521997988014612582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:08.783936Z"
},
{
"price": 2.61,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864836540596349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:15.259165Z"
},
{
"price": 2.67,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "490472738291729655",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:15.259165Z"
},
{
"price": 17.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "655978008938796559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:41.929488Z"
},
{
"price": 21.36,
"skin_id": "skin-11ddb95a9bd7",
"listing_id": "501730992847493381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-11ddb95a9bd7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:16.648206Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-overpass:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Liquidation 14.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 14.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 14.0% $6.27 Continuum 14.0% $6.14 | $701.51 +606.0% | $131.77 +32.6% | 30.0% | +240.4% | $99.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Liquidation 12.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 12.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 12.0% $6.27 Continuum 12.0% $6.14 | $701.51 +385.2% | $172.73 +19.5% | 20.0% | +181.7% | $144.57 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Overpass Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 25.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 25.0% $135.49 Liquidation 10.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 10.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 10.0% $6.27 Continuum 10.0% $6.14 | $701.51 +241.5% | $213.69 +4.0% | 25.0% | +135.7% | $205.44 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Master Piece  20.0% $1,330.91 Ice Coaled  26.7% $52.05 Smoking Kills  26.7% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $44.00 | $1,330.91 +461.4% | $304.44 +28.4% | 20.0% | +216.5% | $237.08 | — |