The Genesis Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Red Wing
1x $0.13
Caged
3x $0.14
Bullfrog
3x $0.17
VariCamo Blue
3x $16.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
15.0% $80.19
Pink DDPAT
15.0% $59.98
Liquidation
14.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
14.0% $1.13
Continuum
14.0% $1.09
Angel Eyes
14.0% $1.05
Max Win
$80.19 (+48.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$22.19 (-59.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+58.8%
Cost
$54.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $54.19
Ask Price EV $22.19 (-59.0%)
Bid Price EV $19.03 (-64.9%)
Ask Profit $-32.00 (-59.0%)
Bid Profit $-35.16 (-64.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.16 (+5.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$32.00
Bid Slippage Buffer -$35.16
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $80.19 (+48.0%)
Worst Case $1.04 (-98.1%)
Volatility +58.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$15.89
Avg Loss -$52.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.04 (-98.1%)
Std Dev $31.85
Avg Norm Float 0.3361
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 144h 10m
Oldest Output Price 143h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$16.47 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$17.06 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 05M 43S //TOTAL COST $54.19 //ASK PRICE EV $22.19 //BID PRICE EV $19.03 //ASK PROFIT $-32.00 (-59.0%) //BID PROFIT $-35.16 (-64.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $80.19 //VOLATILITY +58.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
15.0%
$80.19
+$26.00
+48.0%
$67.00
+$12.81
+23.6%
$13.19
16.4%
—
PAPER WIN
15.0%
$59.98
+$5.79
+10.7%
$52.76
-$1.43
-2.6%
$7.22
12.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.01
-$50.18
-92.6%
$3.61
-$50.58
-93.3%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.13
-$53.06
-97.9%
$1.04
-$53.15
-98.1%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.09
-$53.10
-98.0%
$0.96
-$53.23
-98.2%
$0.13
11.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.05
-$53.14
-98.1%
$1.00
-$53.19
-98.2%
$0.05
4.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.04
-$53.15
-98.1%
$1.01
-$53.18
-98.1%
$0.03
3.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.30869179999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 59.9785,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 52.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:21.897387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.33607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 80.19149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 74.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:39:29.645920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.33607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0485,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:39.081341Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.33607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.33607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.33607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.044,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.394250Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.33607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.087,
"optimistic_value": 1.08,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:14.909256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ebccb20de34225b081609ff5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "500605889841671339",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:44.817563Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "526501587737469509",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:31.362546Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "510738989040919942",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:17.735659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "494976390476880294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:22.630856Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "492724538183332053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:17.735659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:22.630856Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "505108692500795132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:17.735659Z"
},
{
"price": 16.47,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "651475044035708298",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
},
{
"price": 17.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "655978008938796559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:41.929488Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-overpass:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Liquidation 14.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 14.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 14.0% $6.27 Continuum 14.0% $6.14 | $701.51 +606.0% | $131.77 +32.6% | 30.0% | +240.4% | $99.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Liquidation 12.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 12.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 12.0% $6.27 Continuum 12.0% $6.14 | $701.51 +385.2% | $172.73 +19.5% | 20.0% | +181.7% | $144.57 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Overpass Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 25.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 25.0% $135.49 Liquidation 10.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 10.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 10.0% $6.27 Continuum 10.0% $6.14 | $701.51 +241.5% | $213.69 +4.0% | 25.0% | +135.7% | $205.44 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Master Piece  20.0% $1,330.91 Ice Coaled  26.7% $52.05 Smoking Kills  26.7% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $44.00 | $1,330.91 +461.4% | $304.44 +28.4% | 20.0% | +216.5% | $237.08 | — |