The Genesis Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Broken Record
1x $2.41
Red Wing
4x $2.61
Focus
1x $3.38
Bullfrog
1x $5.75
VariCamo Blue
1x $19.39
Nitro
2x $21.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
15.0% $701.51
Pink DDPAT
15.0% $135.49
Liquidation
14.0% $19.42
Cat Fight
14.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes
14.0% $6.27
Continuum
14.0% $6.14
Max Win
$701.51 (+606.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$131.77 (+32.6%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+245.0%
Cost
$99.37
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $99.37
Ask Price EV $131.77 (+32.6%)
Bid Price EV $96.77 (-2.6%)
Ask Profit $32.40 (+32.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.60 (-2.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $35.00 (+35.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$32.40
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.60
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $701.51 (+606.0%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-93.9%)
Volatility +245.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$319.13
Avg Loss -$90.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-93.9%)
Std Dev $243.48
Avg Norm Float 0.0687
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 143h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$2.61 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$2.67 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$2.73 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$3.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$3.87 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$5.75 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$21.36 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$35.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 18S //TOTAL COST $99.37 //ASK PRICE EV $131.77 //BID PRICE EV $96.77 //ASK PROFIT $32.40 (+32.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.60 (-2.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $701.51 //VOLATILITY +245.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
15.0%
$701.51
+$602.14
+606.0%
$490.79
+$391.42
+393.9%
$210.72
30.0%
—
WIN
15.0%
$135.49
+$36.12
+36.3%
$116.22
+$16.85
+17.0%
$19.27
14.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$19.42
-$79.95
-80.5%
$16.07
-$83.30
-83.8%
$3.35
17.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$6.50
-$92.87
-93.5%
$6.35
-$93.02
-93.6%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$6.27
-$93.10
-93.7%
$6.21
-$93.16
-93.8%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$6.14
-$93.23
-93.8%
$6.12
-$93.25
-93.8%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$6.09
-$93.28
-93.9%
$6.07
-$93.30
-93.9%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.110801,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 135.48850000000002,
"optimistic_value": 127.68,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 116.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:34.283752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 701.5105,
"optimistic_value": 657.4,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 490.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:32.262681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:45.758761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:19.243255Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:18.860444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:34:15.027471Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ebccb20de34225b081609ff5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "521997988014612582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:21.155516Z"
},
{
"price": 2.61,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864836540596349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:26.972443Z"
},
{
"price": 2.67,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "490472738291729655",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:26.972443Z"
},
{
"price": 2.73,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864836540598185",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:26.972443Z"
},
{
"price": 3.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "512990736599790755",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:29.626749Z"
},
{
"price": 3.87,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "526501535293219193",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:26.972443Z"
},
{
"price": 5.75,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "506235337024971744",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:05.220382Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:17.618600Z"
},
{
"price": 21.36,
"skin_id": "skin-11ddb95a9bd7",
"listing_id": "501730992847493381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-11ddb95a9bd7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:33.371005Z"
},
{
"price": 35.2,
"skin_id": "skin-11ddb95a9bd7",
"listing_id": "634586007403861349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-11ddb95a9bd7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:05.097024Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-overpass:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Liquidation 12.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 12.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 12.0% $6.27 Continuum 12.0% $6.13 | $701.51 +385.2% | $172.73 +19.5% | 20.0% | +181.7% | $144.57 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Overpass Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 25.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 25.0% $135.49 Liquidation 10.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 10.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 10.0% $6.27 Continuum 10.0% $6.13 | $701.51 +241.5% | $213.69 +4.0% | 25.0% | +135.7% | $205.44 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Master Piece  20.0% $1,330.91 Ice Coaled  26.7% $52.05 Smoking Kills  26.7% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $44.00 | $1,330.91 +460.2% | $304.44 +28.1% | 20.0% | +216.0% | $237.57 | — |