The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wall Bang
2x $0.06
Midnight Paintover
2x $0.09
Wash me plz
1x $0.14
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
Basket Halftone
2x $0.10
Grey Ghost
1x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Arsenic Spill
8.3% $2.20
Teal Graf
12.5% $2.16
Rose Hex
8.3% $1.79
Coral Bloom
8.3% $1.23
Pipsqueak
12.5% $1.22
Wurst Hölle
12.5% $1.13
Max Win
$2.20 (+92.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.33 (+16.4%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+44.4%
Cost
$1.14
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.14
Ask Price EV $1.33 (+16.4%)
Bid Price EV $1.26 (+10.3%)
Ask Profit $0.19 (+16.4%)
Bid Profit $0.12 (+10.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+6.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.19
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.12
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $2.20 (+92.9%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-34.2%)
Volatility +44.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.8%
Avg Win +$0.57
Avg Loss -$0.20
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-34.2%)
Std Dev $0.51
Avg Norm Float 0.1394
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 4h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 35S //TOTAL COST $1.14 //ASK PRICE EV $1.33 //BID PRICE EV $1.26 //ASK PROFIT $0.19 (+16.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.12 (+10.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $2.20 //VOLATILITY +44.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.3%
$2.20
+$1.06
+92.9%
$2.08
+$0.94
+82.5%
$0.12
5.4%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.16
+$1.02
+89.3%
$2.13
+$0.99
+86.8%
$0.03
1.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.3%
$1.79
+$0.65
+57.0%
$1.70
+$0.56
+49.1%
$0.09
5.0%
—
SMALL WIN
8.3%
$1.23
+$0.09
+8.2%
$1.16
+$0.02
+1.8%
$0.07
6.0%
—
PAPER WIN
12.5%
$1.22
+$0.08
+6.8%
$1.12
-$0.02
-1.8%
$0.10
8.0%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$1.13
-$0.01
-0.8%
$1.07
-$0.07
-6.1%
$0.06
5.4%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$1.05
-$0.09
-7.9%
$1.00
-$0.14
-12.3%
$0.05
4.8%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$0.95
-$0.19
-16.4%
$0.82
-$0.32
-28.1%
$0.13
14.0%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$0.82
-$0.32
-28.3%
$0.74
-$0.40
-35.1%
$0.08
9.5%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.75
-$0.39
-34.2%
$0.74
-$0.40
-35.1%
$0.01
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.08361,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 0.75,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:53.127742Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.069675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.1575,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:53.343302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.125415,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 1.2169999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:15.079944Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.13935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:21.359490Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06994826535,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1985,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:06.983904Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.10492232835,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.2335,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:54.028204Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.069675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.79,
"optimistic_value": 1.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:57.922991Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.08361,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.8175,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:12.827339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.10451250000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.05,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:53.555409Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09453935985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:33.326714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ea11d3b91207b0046786fbd5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "503983642533476827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:54.538770Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "497228190140367113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:43.492997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "516368541589824110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:43.492997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "494976390477273234",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:12.132386Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "529879340432956800",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:43.137539Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:00.307719Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "501731842662532937",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:54.427834Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "507361342334662657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:54.427834Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:37:00.465641Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "494976390476312322",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:30.125432Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.20 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.79 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.23 Pipsqueak 7.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $1.13 | $2.20 +98.1% | $1.33 +20.0% | 57.5% | +36.9% | $1.11 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.19 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.15 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.78 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.23 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 10.0% $1.13 | $2.19 +95.7% | $1.33 +18.5% | 60.0% | +36.8% | $1.12 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.19 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.15 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.78 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.22 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.21 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.13 | $2.19 +92.3% | $1.32 +15.8% | 50.0% | +36.9% | $1.14 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  13.3% $15.50 Eye of Zapems  20.0% $10.59 Sweet Little Angels  20.0% $10.28 Monster Melt  20.0% $8.50 Glitched Paint  13.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge  13.3% $5.45 | $15.50 +92.5% | $9.58 +19.0% | 73.3% | +36.2% | $8.05 | — |