The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Wall Bang
3x $0.06
Midnight Paintover
2x $0.09
O-Ranger
2x $0.05
Grey Ghost
1x $0.07
Steel Work
1x $0.07
Basket Halftone
1x $0.10
↓
Possible Outputs
Coral Bloom
8.3% $1.24
Red Tide
8.3% $1.05
Arsenic Spill
8.3% $0.98
Blush Pour
8.3% $0.96
Rose Hex
8.3% $0.80
Shredded
8.3% $0.77
Max Win
$1.24 (+61.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.77 (+0.5%)
Win %
41.7%
Volatility
+31.7%
Cost
$0.77
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $0.77
Ask Price EV $0.77 (+0.5%)
Bid Price EV $0.72 (-6.0%)
Ask Profit $0.00 (+0.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.05 (-6.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+6.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.00
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 41.7%
Loss Probability 58.3%
Best Case $1.24 (+61.6%)
Worst Case $0.41 (-47.1%)
Volatility +31.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 25.0%
Avg Win +$0.24
Avg Loss -$0.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.41 (-47.1%)
Std Dev $0.24
Avg Norm Float 0.1961
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 5h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 25S //TOTAL COST $0.77 //ASK PRICE EV $0.77 //BID PRICE EV $0.72 //ASK PROFIT $0.00 (+0.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.05 (-6.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 41.7% //BEST CASE $1.24 //VOLATILITY +31.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
8.3%
$1.24
+$0.47
+61.6%
$1.16
+$0.39
+50.6%
$0.08
6.8%
—
WIN
8.3%
$1.05
+$0.28
+36.8%
$1.00
+$0.23
+29.9%
$0.05
5.1%
—
WIN
8.3%
$0.98
+$0.21
+27.5%
$0.88
+$0.11
+14.3%
$0.10
10.4%
—
WIN
8.3%
$0.96
+$0.19
+25.1%
$0.82
+$0.05
+6.5%
$0.14
14.9%
—
PAPER WIN
8.3%
$0.80
+$0.03
+4.4%
$0.70
-$0.07
-9.1%
$0.10
12.9%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$0.77
-$0.00
-0.3%
$0.74
-$0.03
-3.9%
$0.03
3.6%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.75
-$0.02
-2.6%
$0.74
-$0.03
-3.9%
$0.01
1.3%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.66
-$0.11
-14.3%
$0.65
-$0.12
-15.6%
$0.01
1.5%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.50
-$0.27
-35.1%
$0.48
-$0.29
-37.7%
$0.02
4.0%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.41
-$0.36
-47.1%
$0.39
-$0.38
-49.4%
$0.02
4.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.11763,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 0.75,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:53.127742Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.098025,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 0.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:10.937618Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.17644500000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 0.40700000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:05:23.053362Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.19605,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 0.5,
"optimistic_value": 0.5,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 0.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:30:16.212851Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09840945405,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 0.982,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:36.969184Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14761408304999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.2445,
"optimistic_value": 1.22,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:59.116962Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.098025,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:50.584121Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11763,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.7675000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:06.886945Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1470375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.0535,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:07.636503Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.13300639755000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9634999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.96,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:21.809733Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ea11d3b91207b0046786fbd5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "491598743581364822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:15.279092Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "506235442368870576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:15.279092Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "524249735517159423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:15.279092Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "497228190140367113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:11.740466Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "516368541589824110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:11.740466Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "507361342335370741",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:19:08.514047Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "506234592353884932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:30:44.518185Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:25.362401Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:19:08.514047Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "501731842662532937",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:31.280987Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.21 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.75 Pipsqueak 12.5% $1.29 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.24 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $1.13 | $2.21 +99.0% | $1.33 +19.9% | 62.5% | +36.8% | $1.11 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.21 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.75 Pipsqueak 7.5% $1.29 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.24 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $1.13 | $2.21 +99.0% | $1.33 +19.9% | 57.5% | +36.5% | $1.11 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.21 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.75 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.24 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.21 Wurst Hölle 10.0% $1.13 | $2.21 +99.0% | $1.32 +19.2% | 60.0% | +37.1% | $1.11 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.21 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.72 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.29 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.29 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.13 | $2.21 +90.4% | $1.33 +14.8% | 50.0% | +35.2% | $1.16 | — |