The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Wall Bang
1x $0.17
Wash me
2x $0.32
Midnight Paintover
1x $0.35
Wash me plz
1x $0.92
Basket Halftone
2x $0.29
Citric Acid
2x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Pipsqueak
12.5% $6.82
Wurst Hölle
12.5% $5.10
Coral Bloom
8.3% $4.76
Red Tide
8.3% $3.33
Blush Pour
8.3% $2.25
Arsenic Spill
8.3% $2.21
Max Win
$6.82 (+40.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.38 (-30.5%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+35.5%
Cost
$4.87
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.87
Ask Price EV $3.38 (-30.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.29 (-32.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.49 (-30.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.58 (-32.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+1.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.49
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.58
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $6.82 (+40.1%)
Worst Case $1.75 (-64.0%)
Volatility +35.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$1.09
Avg Loss -$2.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.75 (-64.0%)
Std Dev $1.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 155h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wash me
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wash me
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 28S //TOTAL COST $4.87 //ASK PRICE EV $3.38 //BID PRICE EV $3.29 //ASK PROFIT $-1.49 (-30.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.58 (-32.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $6.82 //VOLATILITY +35.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
12.5%
$6.82
+$1.95
+40.1%
$6.71
+$1.84
+37.8%
$0.11
1.7%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$5.10
+$0.23
+4.7%
$4.90
+$0.03
+0.6%
$0.20
3.9%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$4.76
-$0.11
-2.3%
$4.73
-$0.14
-2.9%
$0.03
0.6%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$3.33
-$1.54
-31.6%
$3.31
-$1.56
-32.0%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$2.25
-$2.62
-53.9%
$2.08
-$2.79
-57.3%
$0.17
7.4%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$2.21
-$2.66
-54.6%
$2.08
-$2.79
-57.3%
$0.13
5.8%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.19
-$2.68
-54.9%
$2.15
-$2.72
-55.9%
$0.04
2.0%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.14
-$2.73
-56.0%
$2.13
-$2.74
-56.3%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$1.93
-$2.94
-60.4%
$1.77
-$3.10
-63.7%
$0.16
8.2%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$1.75
-$3.12
-64.0%
$1.70
-$3.17
-65.1%
$0.05
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.041651999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.194,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:24.133511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.03471,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.1435,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:01.976299Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.062478,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 6.8235,
"optimistic_value": 6.82,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:07.257918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06942,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 5.1000000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 4.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:00.365094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03484613262,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.209,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:06.291562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.05226916422,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.76,
"optimistic_value": 4.76,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:20.567926Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03471,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.751,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:28.114257Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041651999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.9284999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:52.588384Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052065,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.33,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:46.746468Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04709668002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.2455000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:44.798080Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ea11d3b91207b0046786fbd5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "490472843634130491",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:11.645849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d26b2336552f",
"listing_id": "506235442368496320",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wash me (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wash me",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d26b2336552f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:38.553733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "493850438105713000",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:59.527026Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-d26b2336552f",
"listing_id": "789960193659594614",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wash me (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wash me",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d26b2336552f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:38.553733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "502857637418221228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:04.265741Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620341244381024",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:25.673927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "654852815703091315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:25.673927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "529879340432803080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:41:05.680102Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "519746241189895568",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:07.472510Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:41:05.680102Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.21 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.75 Pipsqueak 12.5% $1.29 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.24 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $1.13 | $2.21 +99.0% | $1.33 +19.9% | 62.5% | +36.8% | $1.11 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.24 Red Tide 8.3% $1.05 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $0.98 Blush Pour 8.3% $0.96 Rose Hex 8.3% $0.80 Shredded 8.3% $0.77 | $1.24 +61.6% | $0.77 +0.5% | 41.7% | +23.1% | $0.77 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.21 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.75 Pipsqueak 7.5% $1.29 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.24 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $1.13 | $2.21 +99.0% | $1.33 +19.9% | 57.5% | +36.5% | $1.11 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.21 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.75 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.24 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.21 Wurst Hölle 10.0% $1.13 | $2.21 +99.0% | $1.32 +19.2% | 60.0% | +37.1% | $1.11 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.21 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.72 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.29 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.29 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.13 | $2.21 +90.4% | $1.33 +14.8% | 50.0% | +35.2% | $1.16 | — |