The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Memorial
1x $0.34
PC-GRN
3x $0.42
Resupply
1x $0.51
Poplar Thicket
4x $0.71
Copperflage
1x $1.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $17.31
Glockingbird
25.0% $11.95
Tosai
10.0% $4.31
Serpent Strike
10.0% $4.02
Rising Sun
10.0% $1.77
Control
10.0% $1.67
Max Win
$17.31 (+108.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.65 (+4.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+76.2%
Cost
$8.31
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.31
Ask Price EV $8.65 (+4.1%)
Bid Price EV $8.48 (+2.1%)
Ask Profit $0.34 (+4.1%)
Bid Profit $0.17 (+2.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.17
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $17.31 (+108.3%)
Worst Case $1.59 (-80.9%)
Volatility +76.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$6.32
Avg Loss -$5.64
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.59 (-80.9%)
Std Dev $6.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0930
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 24h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Factory New
$1.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 31S //TOTAL COST $8.31 //ASK PRICE EV $8.65 //BID PRICE EV $8.48 //ASK PROFIT $0.34 (+4.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.17 (+2.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $17.31 //VOLATILITY +76.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$17.31
+$9.00
+108.3%
$17.09
+$8.78
+105.7%
$0.22
1.2%
—
WIN
25.0%
$11.95
+$3.64
+43.8%
$11.70
+$3.39
+40.8%
$0.25
2.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.31
-$4.00
-48.1%
$4.30
-$4.01
-48.3%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.02
-$4.29
-51.6%
$3.88
-$4.43
-53.3%
$0.14
3.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.77
-$6.54
-78.7%
$1.76
-$6.55
-78.8%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.67
-$6.64
-79.9%
$1.35
-$6.96
-83.8%
$0.32
19.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.59
-$6.72
-80.9%
$1.55
-$6.76
-81.3%
$0.04
2.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0623167,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.9475,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:19.633677Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0697575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.306,
"optimistic_value": 17.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:36.487209Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05301569999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.02,
"optimistic_value": 3.88,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.997448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.07431452495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.6669999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:19:36.262895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09301,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.77,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 1.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:52.473049Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08841056249,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 1.5905,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:10.040666Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.065107,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:00.235766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e8fa8353e1cba86571d22a1a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "491598690700100102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:35.521303Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "526501587738288581",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:43.024897Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "523123835629211698",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:43.024897Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:32.805960Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "528753387758080125",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:43.024897Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:34.738929Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:34.738929Z"
},
{
"price": 1.29,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "505109542379963072",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:35.082911Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857689862180880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "518620288314275428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.69 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.42 Tosai 10.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $5.26 +119.3% | $2.74 +14.0% | 50.0% | +71.9% | $2.40 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.69 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.42 Tosai 8.0% $1.35 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $5.26 +95.0% | $3.09 +14.4% | 60.0% | +62.5% | $2.70 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.69 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.42 Tosai 6.0% $1.35 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $5.26 +73.7% | $3.44 +13.4% | 70.0% | +52.6% | $3.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  40.0% $36.26 Searing Rage  20.0% $7.26 Shinobu  20.0% $6.95 K.O. Factory  20.0% $6.52 | $36.26 +124.0% | $18.65 +15.2% | 40.0% | +88.8% | $16.19 | — |