The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Sure Grip
1x $0.14
Memorial
3x $0.14
Mockingbird
1x $0.27
Copperflage
3x $0.17
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $5.26
Glockingbird
25.0% $3.86
Serpent Strike
10.0% $1.51
Tosai
10.0% $1.30
Rising Sun
10.0% $0.79
Control
10.0% $0.77
Max Win
$5.26 (+125.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.79 (+19.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+79.1%
Cost
$2.34
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.34
Ask Price EV $2.79 (+19.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.55 (+9.1%)
Ask Profit $0.45 (+19.3%)
Bid Profit $0.21 (+9.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+10.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.45
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $5.26 (+125.0%)
Worst Case $0.74 (-68.2%)
Volatility +79.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.22
Avg Loss -$1.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.74 (-68.2%)
Std Dev $1.85
Avg Norm Float 0.1987
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 51h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 20S //TOTAL COST $2.34 //ASK PRICE EV $2.79 //BID PRICE EV $2.55 //ASK PROFIT $0.45 (+19.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.21 (+9.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $5.26 //VOLATILITY +79.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$5.26
+$2.92
+125.0%
$5.07
+$2.73
+116.7%
$0.19
3.7%
—
BIG WIN
25.0%
$3.86
+$1.52
+64.8%
$3.31
+$0.97
+41.5%
$0.55
14.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.51
-$0.83
-35.4%
$1.32
-$1.02
-43.6%
$0.19
12.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.30
-$1.04
-44.5%
$1.19
-$1.15
-49.1%
$0.11
8.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.79
-$1.55
-66.2%
$0.72
-$1.62
-69.2%
$0.07
8.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.77
-$1.57
-67.1%
$0.66
-$1.68
-71.8%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$1.60
-68.2%
$0.70
-$1.64
-70.1%
$0.04
5.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.133129,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.857,
"optimistic_value": 3.85,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:25.695127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.149025,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.264,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:33.797580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11325899999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 1.5105,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 1.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:24.946803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1587603065,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.7905,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:22:23.659961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1888740863,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.744,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:10.338382Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.13909,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 1.298,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:46.266899Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e8fa8353e1cba86571d22a1a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "507361289453186113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:31:05.691081Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "490472738292902715",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:58.949184Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "494976224705404374",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:58.949184Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "499479937453450165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:58.949184Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "517494441497698234",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:11.131628Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "521998040962350366",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.340627Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.787155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.787155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "519746241188606228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "520872141037740540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $17.66 Glockingbird 25.0% $11.97 Tosai 10.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.27 Rising Sun 10.0% $1.80 Wave Breaker 10.0% $1.68 | $17.66 +111.3% | $8.78 +5.0% | 50.0% | +72.0% | $8.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.86 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.49 Tosai 8.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $5.26 +95.7% | $3.14 +16.8% | 60.0% | +63.1% | $2.69 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.86 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.49 Tosai 6.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $5.26 +73.7% | $3.50 +15.4% | 70.0% | +52.7% | $3.03 | — |