The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
PC-GRN
4x $0.42
Resupply
1x $0.51
Poplar Thicket
5x $0.97
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $17.31
Glockingbird
25.0% $11.95
Rising Sun
10.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
10.0% $8.80
Control
10.0% $7.99
Tosai
10.0% $4.31
Max Win
$17.31 (+24.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.74 (-22.5%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+33.2%
Cost
$13.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.86
Ask Price EV $10.74 (-22.5%)
Bid Price EV $10.57 (-23.8%)
Ask Profit $-3.12 (-22.5%)
Bid Profit $-3.29 (-23.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+1.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.12
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.29
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $17.31 (+24.9%)
Worst Case $4.02 (-71.0%)
Volatility +33.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$3.45
Avg Loss -$5.30
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.02 (-71.0%)
Std Dev $4.60
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 2h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 56S //TOTAL COST $13.86 //ASK PRICE EV $10.74 //BID PRICE EV $10.57 //ASK PROFIT $-3.12 (-22.5%) //BID PROFIT $-3.29 (-23.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $17.31 //VOLATILITY +33.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
25.0%
$17.31
+$3.45
+24.9%
$17.09
+$3.23
+23.3%
$0.22
1.2%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$11.95
-$1.91
-13.8%
$11.70
-$2.16
-15.6%
$0.25
2.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.18
-$4.68
-33.8%
$8.80
-$5.06
-36.5%
$0.38
4.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$8.80
-$5.06
-36.5%
$8.74
-$5.12
-36.9%
$0.06
0.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.99
-$5.87
-42.3%
$7.96
-$5.90
-42.6%
$0.03
0.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.31
-$9.55
-68.9%
$4.30
-$9.56
-69.0%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.02
-$9.84
-71.0%
$3.88
-$9.98
-72.0%
$0.14
3.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0468464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.9475,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:19.633677Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.05244,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.306,
"optimistic_value": 17.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:36.487209Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03985439999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.02,
"optimistic_value": 3.88,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.997448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0558657304,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.9935,
"optimistic_value": 7.99,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:22.602610Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.1805,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 8.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:17.054530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06646238607999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.798,
"optimistic_value": 8.77,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:32.391901Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:00.235766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e8fa8353e1cba86571d22a1a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "526501587738288581",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:43.024897Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "523123835629211698",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:43.024897Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:32.805960Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "528753387758080125",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:43.024897Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "523123940969034070",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:24.304249Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:34.738929Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857689862180880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "518620288314275428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "659356415310796570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.69 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.42 Tosai 10.0% $1.28 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $5.26 +119.3% | $2.74 +14.0% | 50.0% | +71.9% | $2.40 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $17.31 Glockingbird 25.0% $11.95 Tosai 10.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 10.0% $1.77 Control 10.0% $1.67 | $17.31 +108.3% | $8.65 +4.1% | 50.0% | +71.3% | $8.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.69 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.42 Tosai 8.0% $1.35 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $5.26 +95.0% | $3.09 +14.4% | 60.0% | +62.5% | $2.70 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.69 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.42 Tosai 6.0% $1.35 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $5.26 +73.7% | $3.44 +13.4% | 70.0% | +52.6% | $3.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  40.0% $36.26 Searing Rage  20.0% $7.26 Shinobu  20.0% $6.95 K.O. Factory  20.0% $6.52 | $36.26 +124.0% | $18.65 +15.2% | 40.0% | +88.8% | $16.19 | — |