The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Snow Splash
2x $0.09
Dark Chamber
1x $0.10
Aeolian Dark
2x $0.12
Tiger Tear
1x $0.15
Acid Dart
2x $0.16
Leafhopper
1x $0.16
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
10.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
10.0% $3.67
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $2.36
Copperflage
10.0% $1.66
Gold Leaf
10.0% $1.57
Creep
12.5% $0.94
Max Win
$4.61 (+197.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.80 (+16.1%)
Win %
52.5%
Volatility
+84.9%
Cost
$1.55
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.55
Ask Price EV $1.80 (+16.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.60 (+3.4%)
Ask Profit $0.25 (+16.1%)
Bid Profit $0.05 (+3.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+12.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 52.5%
Loss Probability 47.5%
Best Case $4.61 (+197.4%)
Worst Case $0.48 (-69.0%)
Volatility +84.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 47.5%
Avg Win +$1.21
Avg Loss -$0.81
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.48 (-69.0%)
Std Dev $1.32
Avg Norm Float 0.1163
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 115h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 47S //TOTAL COST $1.55 //ASK PRICE EV $1.80 //BID PRICE EV $1.60 //ASK PROFIT $0.25 (+16.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.05 (+3.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.5% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +84.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.61
+$3.06
+197.4%
$3.81
+$2.26
+145.8%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$3.67
+$2.12
+136.8%
$3.64
+$2.09
+134.8%
$0.03
0.8%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.36
+$0.81
+52.5%
$2.25
+$0.70
+45.2%
$0.11
4.8%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.66
+$0.11
+7.3%
$1.27
-$0.28
-18.1%
$0.39
23.7%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.57
+$0.02
+1.4%
$1.28
-$0.27
-17.4%
$0.29
18.6%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.94
-$0.61
-39.4%
$0.86
-$0.69
-44.5%
$0.08
8.5%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.76
-$0.79
-51.1%
$0.71
-$0.84
-54.2%
$0.05
6.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.74
-$0.81
-52.5%
$0.66
-$0.89
-57.4%
$0.08
10.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.48
-$1.07
-69.0%
$0.42
-$1.13
-72.9%
$0.06
12.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.09305600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:24:34.171079Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0674656,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.3635,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:59.999027Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.08724000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.758,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:32.641458Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.07560800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.949346Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08724000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0790976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.48,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:20:59.493916Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069792,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.063976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069792,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.6635,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:25.012161Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e731258efe4e93a1246a22d5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "519746188258523528",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:04.631897Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "496102290329307083",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:16.422636Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "520872088106599836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:12.388751Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "526501535292675197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:12.388751Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "498354089952945607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:02.697262Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:51.633224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "512990789044843799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:11.929383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:01.301148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:11.929383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "492724590626520081",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:27.747754Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.10 Grip Tape 12.5% $0.76 Aeolian Light 12.5% $0.74 Poplar Thicket 10.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +418.0% | $1.15 +28.8% | 32.5% | +129.6% | $0.89 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 5.0% $1.10 Grip Tape 5.0% $0.75 Aeolian Light 5.0% $0.73 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +352.0% | $1.38 +34.9% | 37.0% | +134.7% | $1.02 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $1.10 Grip Tape 10.0% $0.75 Aeolian Light 10.0% $0.73 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +406.6% | $1.22 +34.0% | 34.0% | +136.4% | $0.91 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $1.10 Grip Tape 7.5% $0.75 Aeolian Light 7.5% $0.73 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +375.3% | $1.30 +33.8% | 35.5% | +135.4% | $0.97 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 2.5% $1.10 Grip Tape 2.5% $0.76 Aeolian Light 2.5% $0.72 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.46 +30.4% | 36.0% | +126.6% | $1.12 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.10 Grip Tape 15.0% $0.76 Aeolian Light 15.0% $0.72 Poplar Thicket 8.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +448.8% | $1.07 +26.8% | 31.0% | +125.4% | $0.84 | — |