The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Snow Splash
2x $0.26
Vendetta
1x $0.29
Snow Splash
2x $0.34
Garter-9
1x $0.20
Polished Malachite
2x $0.29
Mustard Gas
2x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
10.0% $10.66
Tropical Breeze
10.0% $3.67
Creep
12.5% $2.37
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $2.36
Grip Tape
12.5% $2.17
Aeolian Light
12.5% $1.88
Max Win
$10.66 (+137.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.01 (-33.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+58.3%
Cost
$4.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.49
Ask Price EV $3.01 (-33.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.82 (-37.1%)
Ask Profit $-1.48 (-33.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.67 (-37.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+4.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.48
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.67
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+137.4%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-65.8%)
Volatility +58.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$6.17
Avg Loss -$2.33
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-65.8%)
Std Dev $2.62
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 115h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 54S //TOTAL COST $4.49 //ASK PRICE EV $3.01 //BID PRICE EV $2.82 //ASK PROFIT $-1.48 (-33.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.67 (-37.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +58.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$10.66
+$6.17
+137.4%
$9.81
+$5.32
+118.5%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.67
-$0.82
-18.2%
$3.64
-$0.85
-18.9%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.37
-$2.12
-47.1%
$2.35
-$2.14
-47.7%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.36
-$2.13
-47.4%
$2.25
-$2.24
-49.9%
$0.11
4.8%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.17
-$2.32
-51.6%
$2.10
-$2.39
-53.2%
$0.07
3.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$1.88
-$2.61
-58.1%
$1.86
-$2.63
-58.6%
$0.02
1.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.66
-$2.83
-63.0%
$1.27
-$3.22
-71.7%
$0.39
23.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.57
-$2.92
-65.0%
$1.28
-$3.21
-71.5%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.53
-$2.96
-65.8%
$1.52
-$2.97
-66.1%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.05596,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3735,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:35:57.075163Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.040570999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.3635,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:59.999027Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.171,
"optimistic_value": 2.15,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:46.808216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0454675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.8835,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:27.408216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.047566000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:19.147366Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0384725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.6635,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:25.012161Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e731258efe4e93a1246a22d5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "498354089952945607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:02.697262Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "519746188257911240",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:06.849245Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "523123835628238690",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:02.697262Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "508487189340139490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:47.108617Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "520872088105448808",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:47.108617Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "492724590626520081",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:27.747754Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "494976338033140098",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:04.080966Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:04.080966Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.437657Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "525375688036608451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.437657Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.10 Grip Tape 12.5% $0.76 Aeolian Light 12.5% $0.74 Poplar Thicket 10.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +418.0% | $1.15 +28.8% | 32.5% | +129.6% | $0.89 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $3.67 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $2.36 Copperflage 10.0% $1.66 Gold Leaf 10.0% $1.57 Creep 12.5% $0.94 | $4.61 +197.4% | $1.80 +16.1% | 52.5% | +73.0% | $1.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 5.0% $1.10 Grip Tape 5.0% $0.75 Aeolian Light 5.0% $0.73 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +352.0% | $1.38 +34.9% | 37.0% | +134.7% | $1.02 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $1.10 Grip Tape 10.0% $0.75 Aeolian Light 10.0% $0.73 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +406.6% | $1.22 +34.0% | 34.0% | +136.4% | $0.91 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $1.10 Grip Tape 7.5% $0.75 Aeolian Light 7.5% $0.73 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +375.3% | $1.30 +33.8% | 35.5% | +135.4% | $0.97 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 2.5% $1.10 Grip Tape 2.5% $0.76 Aeolian Light 2.5% $0.72 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.46 +30.4% | 36.0% | +126.6% | $1.12 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.10 Grip Tape 15.0% $0.76 Aeolian Light 15.0% $0.72 Poplar Thicket 8.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +448.8% | $1.07 +26.8% | 31.0% | +125.4% | $0.84 | — |