The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Vendetta
2x $0.05
Dark Chamber
1x $0.07
Snow Splash
1x $0.09
Aeolian Dark
1x $0.12
Marsh
2x $0.07
Leafhopper
3x $0.07
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
10.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
10.0% $1.82
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $1.15
Grip Tape
12.5% $0.81
Aeolian Light
12.5% $0.71
Poplar Thicket
10.0% $0.47
Max Win
$4.61 (+423.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.15 (+31.1%)
Win %
32.5%
Volatility
+139.7%
Cost
$0.88
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.88
Ask Price EV $1.15 (+31.1%)
Bid Price EV $0.99 (+12.6%)
Ask Profit $0.27 (+31.1%)
Bid Profit $0.11 (+12.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+18.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 32.5%
Loss Probability 67.5%
Best Case $4.61 (+423.9%)
Worst Case $0.38 (-57.1%)
Volatility +139.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.5%
Avg Win +$1.54
Avg Loss -$0.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.38 (-57.1%)
Std Dev $1.23
Avg Norm Float 0.1993
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 114h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 19S //TOTAL COST $0.88 //ASK PRICE EV $1.15 //BID PRICE EV $0.99 //ASK PROFIT $0.27 (+31.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.11 (+12.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.5% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +139.7% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.61
+$3.73
+423.9%
$3.81
+$2.93
+333.0%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$1.82
+$0.94
+106.9%
$1.70
+$0.82
+93.2%
$0.12
6.6%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID
12.5%
$1.15
+$0.27
+31.1%
$0.84
-$0.04
-4.5%
$0.31
27.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$0.81
-$0.07
-8.3%
$0.71
-$0.17
-19.3%
$0.10
12.0%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.71
-$0.17
-19.3%
$0.66
-$0.22
-25.0%
$0.05
7.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.47
-$0.41
-46.9%
$0.41
-$0.47
-53.4%
$0.06
12.2%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.41
-$0.47
-53.4%
$0.40
-$0.48
-54.5%
$0.01
2.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.41
-$0.47
-53.4%
$0.38
-$0.50
-56.8%
$0.03
7.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.38
-$0.50
-57.1%
$0.35
-$0.53
-60.2%
$0.03
7.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.15945600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.41050000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T01:26:01.939519Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.11560559999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 1.1535,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 0.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:34.739985Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.807,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:19.617311Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.129558,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.7104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:28.913662Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1355376,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.467,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:31.131633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11959199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.41050000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:54.653511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.109626,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11959199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.3775,
"optimistic_value": 0.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:07.245716Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e731258efe4e93a1246a22d5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "506235389469688008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:34:21.976834Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "521997191219563530",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:33.737312Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "519746188258523528",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:27.754181Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "516368436281919014",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:13.951050Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "520872088106599836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:55:10.777509Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "510738989039935162",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:36.403926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "498354089952663223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:40.865854Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "502856892559649080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:36.403926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814788696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:40.865854Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746188258597184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:33.351661Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $3.67 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $2.36 Copperflage 10.0% $1.68 Gold Leaf 10.0% $1.57 Creep 12.5% $0.93 | $4.61 +193.6% | $1.80 +14.7% | 52.5% | +72.0% | $1.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $1.12 Grip Tape 7.5% $0.76 Aeolian Light 7.5% $0.72 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +375.3% | $1.30 +34.4% | 35.5% | +134.9% | $0.97 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $1.12 Grip Tape 10.0% $0.76 Aeolian Light 10.0% $0.72 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +395.7% | $1.22 +31.7% | 34.0% | +133.1% | $0.93 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.04 Grip Tape 15.0% $0.81 Aeolian Light 15.0% $0.71 Poplar Thicket 8.0% $0.48 | $4.61 +455.4% | $1.06 +27.9% | 31.0% | +126.9% | $0.83 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough  25.0% $6.12 Trace Lock  25.0% $2.16 Sheet Lightning  25.0% $2.03 Glockingbird  25.0% $1.49 | $6.12 +167.1% | $2.95 +28.8% | 25.0% | +80.6% | $2.29 | — |