The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Foresight
1x $0.31
Necro Jr.
2x $0.34
Spirit Board
1x $0.46
Scrawl
1x $0.47
Poplar Thicket
4x $0.71
Copperflage
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $17.68
Glockingbird
25.0% $11.79
Ticket to Hell
10.0% $4.90
Night Terror
10.0% $4.01
Space Cat
10.0% $3.22
Zombie Offensive
10.0% $2.68
Max Win
$17.68 (+90.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.01 (-2.9%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+66.2%
Cost
$9.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.28
Ask Price EV $9.01 (-2.9%)
Bid Price EV $8.83 (-4.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.27 (-2.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.46 (-4.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.46
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $17.68 (+90.5%)
Worst Case $1.64 (-82.4%)
Volatility +66.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$5.46
Avg Loss -$5.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.64 (-82.4%)
Std Dev $6.14
Avg Norm Float 0.0912
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 5h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 25S //TOTAL COST $9.28 //ASK PRICE EV $9.01 //BID PRICE EV $8.83 //ASK PROFIT $-0.27 (-2.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.46 (-4.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $17.68 //VOLATILITY +66.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$17.68
+$8.40
+90.5%
$17.08
+$7.80
+84.1%
$0.60
3.4%
—
WIN
25.0%
$11.79
+$2.51
+27.1%
$11.68
+$2.40
+25.9%
$0.11
0.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.90
-$4.38
-47.2%
$4.89
-$4.39
-47.3%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.01
-$5.27
-56.8%
$3.98
-$5.30
-57.1%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.22
-$6.06
-65.3%
$3.19
-$6.09
-65.6%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.68
-$6.60
-71.1%
$2.67
-$6.61
-71.2%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.64
-$7.64
-82.4%
$1.62
-$7.66
-82.5%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.061110700000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.791,
"optimistic_value": 11.7,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:12.875034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0684075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.6815,
"optimistic_value": 17.65,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:37.883023Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09121,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:23:06.525413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.063847,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.007,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:48.717849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.061110700000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:49.983816Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0693196,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:48.012121Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045605,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:55.686043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e3da434d850f3f2b6d53d232",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:32:20.063096Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "506235389468826600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:24.630207Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "496102290329675579",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:24.630207Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "628957117755177229",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:03.780750Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "496102290329673671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:10.032135Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524248990822512231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:44.731518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "493850490550488376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:26.885468Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:26.885468Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.88 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.57 Night Terror 10.0% $1.41 Space Cat 10.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +119.6% | $2.88 +21.5% | 50.0% | +68.4% | $2.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.92 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.62 Night Terror 14.0% $1.41 Space Cat 14.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +172.5% | $2.23 +16.5% | 30.0% | +78.7% | $1.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.19 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.87 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.52 Night Terror 12.0% $1.40 Space Cat 12.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.00 | $5.19 +135.7% | $2.54 +15.6% | 40.0% | +72.0% | $2.20 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.19 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.87 Night Terror 8.0% $1.41 Space Cat 8.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.00 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.90 | $5.19 +88.5% | $3.15 +14.4% | 60.0% | +60.0% | $2.75 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.88 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.57 Night Terror 6.0% $1.41 Space Cat 6.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +67.3% | $3.55 +14.0% | 70.0% | +48.1% | $3.11 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  30.0% $36.26 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $9.15 Melondrama  23.3% $9.07 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $8.84 | $36.26 +158.1% | $17.19 +22.4% | 30.0% | +88.8% | $14.05 | — |