The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.15
Necro Jr.
1x $0.17
Scrawl
1x $0.18
Spirit Board
1x $0.27
Copperflage
3x $0.16
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $5.26
Glockingbird
25.0% $3.92
Ticket to Hell
10.0% $1.57
Night Terror
10.0% $1.56
Space Cat
10.0% $1.17
Zombie Offensive
10.0% $1.04
Max Win
$5.26 (+132.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.92 (+29.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+77.4%
Cost
$2.26
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.26
Ask Price EV $2.92 (+29.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.68 (+18.8%)
Ask Profit $0.66 (+29.3%)
Bid Profit $0.42 (+18.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+10.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.66
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $5.26 (+132.9%)
Worst Case $0.90 (-60.2%)
Volatility +77.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.33
Avg Loss -$1.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.90 (-60.2%)
Std Dev $1.75
Avg Norm Float 0.1968
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 26m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 50S //TOTAL COST $2.26 //ASK PRICE EV $2.92 //BID PRICE EV $2.68 //ASK PROFIT $0.66 (+29.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.42 (+18.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $5.26 //VOLATILITY +77.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$5.26
+$3.00
+132.9%
$5.07
+$2.81
+124.3%
$0.19
3.7%
—
BIG WIN
25.0%
$3.92
+$1.66
+73.5%
$3.34
+$1.08
+47.8%
$0.58
14.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.57
-$0.69
-30.8%
$1.45
-$0.81
-35.8%
$0.11
7.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.56
-$0.70
-30.8%
$1.35
-$0.91
-40.3%
$0.21
13.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.17
-$1.09
-48.1%
$1.16
-$1.10
-48.7%
$0.01
1.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.04
-$1.22
-53.8%
$0.99
-$1.27
-56.2%
$0.05
5.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.90
-$1.36
-60.2%
$0.87
-$1.39
-61.5%
$0.03
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.1318292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.9219999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.88,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:50.476861Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.14756999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.264,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:39.707034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19676,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.9005000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:43.036503Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.137732,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.5645,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:24.467013Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1318292,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.1735,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:06.823756Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1495376,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.565,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:29:17.823241Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.0435,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:43.385910Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e3da434d850f3f2b6d53d232",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "529879287551817216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:22:57.338700Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "511864091800288269",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:22:57.338700Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "501730992839982773",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:21:50.535064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "494975741577971706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:46.257209Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "526501535294123153",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:50.740411Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "510738989041297978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:28:40.295584Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:26:37.902192Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:26:37.902192Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "500605889842078859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "508487189340841310",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.92 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.57 Night Terror 12.0% $1.56 Space Cat 12.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.04 | $5.26 +160.6% | $2.59 +28.1% | 40.0% | +79.3% | $2.02 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.92 Night Terror 6.0% $1.56 Space Cat 6.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.04 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.90 | $5.26 +86.0% | $3.55 +25.4% | 70.0% | +55.3% | $2.83 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.88 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.60 Night Terror 8.0% $1.41 Space Cat 8.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.02 | $5.26 +97.9% | $3.23 +21.5% | 60.0% | +60.4% | $2.66 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.83 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.58 Night Terror 14.0% $1.44 Space Cat 14.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.04 | $5.26 +178.5% | $2.23 +18.1% | 30.0% | +79.6% | $1.89 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  30.0% $36.26 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.30 Melondrama  23.3% $9.20 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.87 | $36.26 +152.9% | $17.26 +20.4% | 30.0% | +86.7% | $14.34 | — |