The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Spirit Board
2x $0.46
Scrawl
2x $0.47
Necro Jr.
1x $1.52
Poplar Thicket
4x $0.71
Copperflage
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $17.68
Glockingbird
25.0% $11.79
Dream Glade
10.0% $8.63
Ticket to Hell
10.0% $4.90
Night Terror
10.0% $4.01
Space Cat
10.0% $3.22
Max Win
$17.68 (+23.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.71 (-32.4%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+39.2%
Cost
$14.37
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.37
Ask Price EV $9.71 (-32.4%)
Bid Price EV $9.52 (-33.8%)
Ask Profit $-4.66 (-32.4%)
Bid Profit $-4.85 (-33.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+1.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.66
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.85
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $17.68 (+23.0%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-81.4%)
Volatility +39.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$3.31
Avg Loss -$7.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-81.4%)
Std Dev $5.64
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 25m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.52 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.72 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 09S //TOTAL COST $14.37 //ASK PRICE EV $9.71 //BID PRICE EV $9.52 //ASK PROFIT $-4.66 (-32.4%) //BID PROFIT $-4.85 (-33.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $17.68 //VOLATILITY +39.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
25.0%
$17.68
+$3.31
+23.0%
$17.08
+$2.71
+18.9%
$0.60
3.4%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$11.79
-$2.58
-17.9%
$11.68
-$2.69
-18.7%
$0.11
0.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.63
-$5.74
-40.0%
$8.54
-$5.83
-40.6%
$0.09
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.90
-$9.47
-65.9%
$4.89
-$9.48
-66.0%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.01
-$10.36
-72.1%
$3.98
-$10.39
-72.3%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.22
-$11.15
-77.6%
$3.19
-$11.18
-77.8%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.68
-$11.69
-81.4%
$2.67
-$11.70
-81.4%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.04685980000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.791,
"optimistic_value": 11.7,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:12.875034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.6815,
"optimistic_value": 17.65,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:37.883023Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.628,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:27.057055Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.007,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:48.717849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04685980000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:49.983816Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.053154400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:48.012121Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03497,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:55.686043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e3da434d850f3f2b6d53d232",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "628957117755177229",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:03.780750Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "496102290329673671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:10.032135Z"
},
{
"price": 1.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "507361342333695157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:27.521981Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "637964317031203769",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:36.020538Z"
},
{
"price": 2.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228137696833341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:05.772210Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524248990822512231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:44.731518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "493850490550488376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:26.885468Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:26.885468Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.88 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.57 Night Terror 10.0% $1.41 Space Cat 10.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +119.6% | $2.88 +21.5% | 50.0% | +68.4% | $2.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.92 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.62 Night Terror 14.0% $1.41 Space Cat 14.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +172.5% | $2.23 +16.5% | 30.0% | +78.7% | $1.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.19 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.87 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.52 Night Terror 12.0% $1.40 Space Cat 12.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.00 | $5.19 +135.7% | $2.54 +15.6% | 40.0% | +72.0% | $2.20 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.19 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.87 Night Terror 8.0% $1.41 Space Cat 8.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.00 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.90 | $5.19 +88.5% | $3.15 +14.4% | 60.0% | +60.0% | $2.75 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.88 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.57 Night Terror 6.0% $1.41 Space Cat 6.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +67.3% | $3.55 +14.0% | 70.0% | +48.1% | $3.11 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  30.0% $36.26 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $9.15 Melondrama  23.3% $9.07 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $8.84 | $36.26 +158.1% | $17.19 +22.4% | 30.0% | +88.8% | $14.05 | — |