The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Urban Sovereign
6x $4.67
Galigator
2x $5.66
Amberline
1x $6.41
Naga
1x $12.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
龍王
3.3% $172.38
Cartel
3.3% $171.06
Kintsugi
30.0% $62.86
Deathgaze
30.0% $58.69
Muertos
3.3% $55.21
Max Win
$290.04 (+171.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$136.77 (+27.8%)
Win %
36.7%
Volatility
+97.2%
Cost
$106.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $106.99
Ask Price EV $136.77 (+27.8%)
Bid Price EV $110.69 (+3.5%)
Ask Profit $29.78 (+27.8%)
Bid Profit $3.70 (+3.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $26.08 (+24.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$29.78
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.70
Risk
Win Probability 36.7%
Loss Probability 63.3%
Best Case $290.04 (+171.1%)
Worst Case $55.21 (-48.4%)
Volatility +97.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 63.3%
Avg Win +$161.54
Avg Loss -$46.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $58.69 (-45.1%)
Std Dev $104.01
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 146h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.69 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$5.66 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.41 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.79 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Naga
—
Minimal Wear
$12.32 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 08S //TOTAL COST $106.99 //ASK PRICE EV $136.77 //BID PRICE EV $110.69 //ASK PROFIT $29.78 (+27.8%) //BID PROFIT $3.70 (+3.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.7% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +97.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$290.04
+$183.05
+171.1%
$229.11
+$122.12
+114.1%
$60.93
21.0%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$172.38
+$65.39
+61.1%
$133.37
+$26.38
+24.7%
$39.01
22.6%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$171.06
+$64.07
+59.9%
$140.03
+$33.04
+30.9%
$31.03
18.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$62.86
-$44.13
-41.2%
$55.11
-$51.88
-48.5%
$7.75
12.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$58.69
-$48.30
-45.1%
$48.81
-$58.18
-54.4%
$9.88
16.8%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$55.21
-$51.78
-48.4%
$49.97
-$57.02
-53.3%
$5.24
9.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-6|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-6"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 62.8585,
"optimistic_value": 61.21,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:10.760999Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 58.6885,
"optimistic_value": 56.9,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 48.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:00.065429Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052312500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2a8ebacc14e8",
"realistic_value": 171.05700000000002,
"optimistic_value": 170,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Cartel",
"conservative_value": 140.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:07.504755Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a8ebacc14e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052312500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d6f2e7995a15",
"realistic_value": 172.3835,
"optimistic_value": 171.12,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King)",
"conservative_value": 133.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:24:20.971957Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d6f2e7995a15.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041850000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-add7770f46d1",
"realistic_value": 55.212500000000006,
"optimistic_value": 54.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Muertos",
"conservative_value": 49.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:33:46.634013Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-add7770f46d1.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e15d6971657df183c01b2c31",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.67,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988016508126",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.286724Z"
},
{
"price": 4.69,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "526501587738279653",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.286724Z"
},
{
"price": 5.66,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "493850490550910008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:45.032861Z"
},
{
"price": 6.41,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "528753387757823085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:48.718851Z"
},
{
"price": 7.79,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883502647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:45.032861Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.348082Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.348082Z"
},
{
"price": 16.99,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123091079375442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.348082Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.348082Z"
},
{
"price": 12.32,
"skin_id": "skin-75138a0c07b3",
"listing_id": "501731789730300929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Naga",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75138a0c07b3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:59.285226Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-community-6:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Cartel 3.3% $69.42 Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 龍王 3.3% $41.04 Muertos 3.3% $24.27 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.23 | $69.42 +138.6% | $30.81 +5.9% | 36.7% | +83.9% | $29.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 龍王 3.3% $91.72 Cartel 3.3% $90.03 Muertos 3.3% $33.08 Kintsugi 30.0% $23.08 Deathgaze 30.0% $21.31 | $126.41 +124.4% | $58.40 +3.7% | 36.7% | +84.5% | $56.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Chroma Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 龍王 6.7% $172.38 Cartel 6.7% $171.06 Kintsugi 26.7% $62.86 Deathgaze 26.7% $58.69 Muertos 6.7% $55.21 | $290.04 +165.9% | $136.33 +25.0% | 40.0% | +91.5% | $109.08 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Chroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 龍王 10.0% $172.38 Cartel 10.0% $171.06 Kintsugi 23.3% $62.86 Deathgaze 23.3% $58.69 Muertos 10.0% $55.21 | $290.04 +155.0% | $135.90 +19.5% | 43.3% | +83.8% | $113.73 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Chroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 龍王 13.3% $172.38 Cartel 13.3% $171.06 Kintsugi 20.0% $62.86 Deathgaze 20.0% $58.69 Muertos 13.3% $55.21 | $290.04 +143.3% | $135.47 +13.6% | 46.7% | +76.0% | $119.23 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  18.0% $51.27 Naga 2.5% $41.56 Firebreathing  18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Malachite  2.5% $17.85 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 | $51.27 +149.6% | $25.55 +24.4% | 38.5% | +62.3% | $20.54 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Chatterbox  5.0% $213.71 Man-o'-war  5.0% $188.20 | $843.46 +64.6% | $617.86 +20.6% | 45.0% | +42.9% | $512.53 | — |