The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5

Classified → Covert WW ST 10 items

Factory New -5.2%Minimal Wear +24.1%Well-Worn +4.2%

Contract

Classified → Covert Well-Worn StatTrak™

Inputs

The Executioner

4x $10.40

Shapewood

1x $11.65

Wicked Sick

4x $4.97

Wild Child

1x $5.35

↓

Possible Outputs

Fade

25.0% $131.78

Royal Paladin

25.0% $117.34

Temukau

25.0% $52.74

Head Shot

25.0% $39.98

Max Win

$131.78 (+60.7%)

EV (ROI %)

$85.46 (+4.2%)

Win %

50.0%

Volatility

+48.4%

Cost

$82.01

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $82.01

Ask Price EV $85.46 (+4.2%)

Bid Price EV $72.45 (-11.7%)

Ask Profit $3.45 (+4.2%)

Bid Profit $-9.56 (-11.7%)

Liquidity Gap $13.01 (+15.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.45

Bid Slippage Buffer -$9.56

Risk

Win Probability 50.0%

Loss Probability 50.0%

Best Case $131.78 (+60.7%)

Worst Case $39.98 (-51.3%)

Volatility +48.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%

Avg Win +$42.55

Avg Loss -$35.65

Bottom 5% Outcome $39.98 (-51.3%)

Std Dev $39.69

Avg Norm Float 0.3846

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 18m

Oldest Output Price 152h 44m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

G3SG1 | The Executioner

—

Battle-Scarred

$10.40 Float: HIDDEN

G3SG1 | The Executioner

—

Battle-Scarred

$10.83 Float: HIDDEN

G3SG1 | The Executioner

—

Field-Tested

$10.84 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Field-Tested

$11.65 Float: HIDDEN

G3SG1 | The Executioner

—

Field-Tested

$12.19 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Wicked Sick

—

Well-Worn

$4.97 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Wicked Sick

—

Well-Worn

$5.17 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Wicked Sick

—

Well-Worn

$5.29 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Wicked Sick

—

Well-Worn

$5.32 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Wild Child

—

Field-Tested

$5.35 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 47S //TOTAL COST $82.01 //ASK PRICE EV $85.46 //BID PRICE EV $72.45 //ASK PROFIT $3.45 (+4.2%) //BID PROFIT $-9.56 (-11.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $131.78 //VOLATILITY +48.4% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.38461,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1f95db2031e4",
      "realistic_value": 39.978,
      "optimistic_value": 39.46,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Head Shot",
      "conservative_value": 37.23,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:58.726763Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1f95db2031e4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.307688,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-4c83a4940ef3",
      "realistic_value": 117.336,
      "optimistic_value": 113.78,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Royal Paladin",
      "conservative_value": 97.49,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:38:35.339826Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c83a4940ef3.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.307688,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1aba3ea9ecc5",
      "realistic_value": 52.739,
      "optimistic_value": 51.71,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Temukau",
      "conservative_value": 47.24,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:34:13.288982Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1aba3ea9ecc5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.153844,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-3d5660b8b090",
      "realistic_value": 131.778,
      "optimistic_value": 123.77,
      "output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Fade",
      "conservative_value": 107.84,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:16.728186Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d5660b8b090.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_e15ae34bd366b49249d717f9",
  "input_rarity": "Classified",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 10.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-b0c24d905a01",
      "listing_id": "627831217902085316",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "G3SG1 | The Executioner",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c24d905a01.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:52.904515Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 10.83,
      "skin_id": "skin-b0c24d905a01",
      "listing_id": "491598524992201298",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "G3SG1 | The Executioner",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c24d905a01.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:52.904515Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 10.84,
      "skin_id": "skin-b0c24d905a01",
      "listing_id": "525375522200399131",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "G3SG1 | The Executioner",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c24d905a01.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:21:52.141903Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 11.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "529879235108153736",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:43.289277Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 12.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-b0c24d905a01",
      "listing_id": "517494441498196654",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "G3SG1 | The Executioner",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c24d905a01.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:21:52.141903Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.97,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "514116688950136398",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:05.095541Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "523123888072097686",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:05.095541Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.29,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "516368488724808134",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:05.095541Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "512990736599671199",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:05.095541Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "510738989041305502",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:19.572465Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Covert",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Classified|Covert|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-10:5+collection-set-community-32:5"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST	Fade 25.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 25.0% $173.55 Temukau 25.0% $126.64 Head Shot 25.0% $70.95	$318.51 +129.2%	$172.41 +24.1%	50.0%	+66.1%	$138.95	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST	Fade 15.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 15.0% $173.55 Temukau 35.0% $126.64 Head Shot 35.0% $46.53	$318.51 +198.0%	$134.42 +25.8%	65.0%	+83.9%	$106.88	—
The Revolver Case Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST	Fade 10.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 10.0% $173.55 Temukau 40.0% $126.64 Head Shot 40.0% $46.53	$318.51 +213.2%	$118.48 +16.5%	60.0%	+78.7%	$101.71	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST	Power Loader 8.3% $20.64 Avalanche 8.3% $17.49 Retrobution 8.3% $9.43 Teclu Burner 8.3% $8.17 Fuel Rod 8.3% $6.48 Tiger Moth 8.3% $5.82	$20.64 +247.4%	$6.96 +17.1%	41.7%	+85.2%	$5.94	—