The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5

Classified → Covert FN ST 10 items

Factory New -5.2%Minimal Wear +24.1%Well-Worn +4.2%

Contract

Classified → Covert Factory New StatTrak™

Inputs

Shapewood

5x $19.55

Wild Child

3x $30.94

Wicked Sick

1x $47.00

Duality

1x $70.65

↓

Possible Outputs

Royal Paladin

25.0% $696.64

Fade

25.0% $318.51

Temukau

25.0% $288.76

Head Shot

25.0% $191.11

Max Win

$696.64 (+76.7%)

EV (ROI %)

$373.76 (-5.2%)

Win %

25.0%

Volatility

+48.8%

Cost

$394.26

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $394.26

Ask Price EV $373.76 (-5.2%)

Bid Price EV $243.77 (-38.2%)

Ask Profit $-20.50 (-5.2%)

Bid Profit $-150.50 (-38.2%)

Liquidity Gap $129.99 (+33.0%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$20.50

Bid Slippage Buffer -$150.50

Risk

Win Probability 25.0%

Loss Probability 75.0%

Best Case $696.64 (+76.7%)

Worst Case $191.11 (-51.5%)

Volatility +48.8%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%

Avg Win +$302.38

Avg Loss -$128.13

Bottom 5% Outcome $191.11 (-51.5%)

Std Dev $192.28

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 152h 46m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$19.55 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$19.98 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$20.21 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$21.18 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Factory New

$77.69 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Wild Child

—

Factory New

$30.94 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Wild Child

—

Factory New

$34.07 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Wicked Sick

—

Factory New

$47.00 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Wild Child

—

Factory New

$52.99 Float: HIDDEN

AWP | Duality

—

Factory New

$70.65 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 12S //TOTAL COST $394.26 //ASK PRICE EV $373.76 //BID PRICE EV $243.77 //ASK PROFIT $-20.50 (-5.2%) //BID PROFIT $-150.50 (-38.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $696.64 //VOLATILITY +48.8% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.06994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1f95db2031e4",
      "realistic_value": 191.11450000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 186.33,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Head Shot",
      "conservative_value": 145.89,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:08.692079Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1f95db2031e4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.055952,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-4c83a4940ef3",
      "realistic_value": 696.6374999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 557.31,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Royal Paladin",
      "conservative_value": 395.34,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:35:59.515866Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c83a4940ef3.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.055952,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1aba3ea9ecc5",
      "realistic_value": 288.75649999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 270.28,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Temukau",
      "conservative_value": 256.42,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:32.925345Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1aba3ea9ecc5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.027976,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-3d5660b8b090",
      "realistic_value": 318.5125,
      "optimistic_value": 254.81,
      "output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Fade",
      "conservative_value": 177.41,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:28:16.437303Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d5660b8b090.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_e15ae34bd366b49249d717f9",
  "input_rarity": "Classified",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 19.55,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "528753335312491401",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:24.942892Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 19.98,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "628952610182151850",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:24.942892Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 20.21,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "783200338039312163",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:24.942892Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 21.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "636836442316788129",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:24.942892Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 77.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "525375635592698155",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:02.206970Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 30.94,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "499480042827690301",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:55.604001Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 34.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "506234592349966728",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:55.604001Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 47,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "516368322941506682",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:35.717130Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 52.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "498353293083594931",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:55.604001Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 70.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-d42f9ca97ef6",
      "listing_id": "632334817624818539",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Duality (Factory New)",
      "name": "AWP | Duality",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d42f9ca97ef6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:48.299746Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Covert",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Classified|Covert|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-10:5+collection-set-community-32:5"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST	Fade 25.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 25.0% $173.55 Temukau 25.0% $126.64 Head Shot 25.0% $70.95	$318.51 +129.2%	$172.41 +24.1%	50.0%	+66.1%	$138.95	—
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Well-Worn ST	Fade 25.0% $131.78 Royal Paladin 25.0% $117.34 Temukau 25.0% $52.74 Head Shot 25.0% $39.98	$131.78 +60.7%	$85.46 +4.2%	50.0%	+48.4%	$82.01	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST	Fade 15.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 15.0% $173.55 Temukau 35.0% $126.64 Head Shot 35.0% $46.53	$318.51 +198.0%	$134.42 +25.8%	65.0%	+83.9%	$106.88	—
The Revolver Case Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST	Fade 10.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 10.0% $173.55 Temukau 40.0% $126.64 Head Shot 40.0% $46.53	$318.51 +213.2%	$118.48 +16.5%	60.0%	+78.7%	$101.71	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST	Power Loader 8.3% $20.64 Avalanche 8.3% $17.49 Retrobution 8.3% $9.43 Teclu Burner 8.3% $8.17 Fuel Rod 8.3% $6.48 Tiger Moth 8.3% $5.82	$20.64 +247.4%	$6.96 +17.1%	41.7%	+85.2%	$5.94	—