The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Snow Splash
3x $0.12
Aeolian Dark
2x $0.13
Dark Chamber
2x $0.14
Banana Leaf
1x $0.17
Coral Paisley
2x $0.21
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
7.5% $6.16
The Daily Deagle
17.5% $2.36
Aeolian Light
17.5% $1.88
Sky Mandala
7.5% $1.69
Earth Mandala
7.5% $1.20
Warm Blooded
7.5% $1.07
Max Win
$6.16 (+260.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.80 (+5.1%)
Win %
42.5%
Volatility
+80.0%
Cost
$1.71
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.71
Ask Price EV $1.80 (+5.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.72 (+0.7%)
Ask Profit $0.09 (+5.1%)
Bid Profit $0.01 (+0.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+4.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.09
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.01
Risk
Win Probability 42.5%
Loss Probability 57.5%
Best Case $6.16 (+260.1%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-55.9%)
Volatility +80.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$1.12
Avg Loss -$0.68
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-55.9%)
Std Dev $1.37
Avg Norm Float 0.1076
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 1h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 56S //TOTAL COST $1.71 //ASK PRICE EV $1.80 //BID PRICE EV $1.72 //ASK PROFIT $0.09 (+5.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.01 (+0.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 42.5% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +80.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$6.16
+$4.45
+260.1%
$6.12
+$4.41
+257.9%
$0.04
0.6%
—
WIN
17.5%
$2.36
+$0.65
+38.0%
$2.25
+$0.54
+31.6%
$0.11
4.7%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$1.88
+$0.17
+10.1%
$1.86
+$0.15
+8.8%
$0.02
1.2%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$1.69
-$0.02
-1.5%
$1.57
-$0.14
-8.2%
$0.11
6.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$1.20
-$0.51
-30.0%
$1.01
-$0.70
-40.9%
$0.19
15.7%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$1.07
-$0.64
-37.2%
$1.01
-$0.70
-40.9%
$0.06
5.9%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$0.93
-$0.78
-45.4%
$0.86
-$0.85
-49.7%
$0.07
7.9%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$0.75
-$0.96
-55.9%
$0.71
-$1.00
-58.5%
$0.04
5.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.08604,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.9335,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:37.051667Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.062379,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.3605,
"optimistic_value": 2.35,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:43:05.542905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.0806625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.7545,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:17.311700Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.06990750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.8835,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:25.395526Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06990750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.075285,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.685,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:50.795902Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.075285,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.0735000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:46.394240Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.070983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1975,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:51.237781Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ddcbf4830cc6b74e3fea7400",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "499479937453697917",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:27.465632Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "523123722381817786",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:27.465632Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "492723793457478297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:44.123816Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "526501535292675197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:44.123816Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "659356415309462230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:30.257048Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "496102290329432507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:30.257048Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "528753387757077705",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:01.552932Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:37.055458Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "492724538183378061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:44.470393Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613036861256419",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:44.470393Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.69 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.07 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $1.01 Creep 17.5% $0.93 | $2.93 +233.4% | $1.12 +26.9% | 65.0% | +60.2% | $0.88 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.87 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.18 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.07 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.04 Creep 15.0% $0.93 | $2.93 +215.5% | $1.23 +32.2% | 70.0% | +63.9% | $0.93 | — |